Should I Buy LOPE? LOPE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

169.720

1 Day change

1.06%

52 Week Range

223.040

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend and momentum are still bearish, and there is no proprietary buy signal to override that.
A short-term bounce is possible (RSI depressed and price near support), but odds favor waiting for momentum to stabilize or a clearer catalyst.
With earnings on 2026-02-18 (after hours) and elevated options implied volatility, near-term price swings are likely; direction is less certain than the volatility suggests.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish: moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating persistent downside pressure.
Momentum is weakening: MACD histogram is negative (-1.514) and expanding lower, suggesting the down move is still building rather than bottoming.
RSI(6) at ~32 is depressed (near oversold territory), which can support a reflex bounce, but it is not a confirmation of reversal by itself.
Key levels: immediate support S1 ~165.94 (then S2 ~161.54). Overhead resistance/pivot ~173.06, then R1 ~180.18.
Pattern-based model tilt is mildly bullish (historical analogs suggest +1.82% next day / +2.26% next week / +6.03% next month), but it conflicts with current bearish trend indicators—so treat as a potential bounce setup, not a confirmed uptrend.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew is defensive: open interest put/call = 1.28 (more puts than calls outstanding).
Very put-heavy trading today: option volume put/call = 7.71 (puts dominating today’s flow), consistent with hedging/speculative downside positioning.
Volatility is elevated: 30D IV ~41.64 vs historical vol ~28.49, with IV percentile ~93.63—options are pricing unusually large moves (often around events like earnings).
Volume is elevated vs average: today’s volume vs 30D average ~196.77%, indicating heightened attention/positioning into the upcoming earnings window.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Potential oversold bounce: RSI is depressed and price is trading near support (~165.9), which can attract dip-buyers.
- Growth remains solid at the top line: latest reported quarter shows revenue +9.59% YoY (2025/Q3).
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-18 after hours) can act as a catalyst if results/guidance beat expectations.
- News framing includes “buying opportunity for risk-tolerant investors” due to the recent pullback, supported by continued revenue growth.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Downtrend still intact: bearish MA stack + negatively expanding MACD increases the probability that support breaks before a durable reversal.
- Options flow is strongly bearish today (put volume dominating), signaling near-term caution.
- Hedge funds selling pressure: reported selling increased 155.44% over the last quarter (negative positioning signal).
- Event-driven risk: litigation reserves cited as a key driver of the stock’s decline; further reserve increases or adverse legal developments could pressure the stock.
- A notable holder exit: Monument Capital Management sold its entire stake (~1.05% to 0%), which can weigh on sentiment.
- Earnings soon with elevated IV: implies the market expects a big move; direction is uncertain, and negative surprises can be punished.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $261.142M, +9.59% YoY (healthy growth trend).
Profitability weakened sharply: Net income $16.274M, -60.75% YoY; EPS $0.58, -59.15% YoY (margin/expense pressure consistent with higher reserves).
Gross margin improved to 49.68% (+1.12% YoY), suggesting core gross profitability held up even as bottom-line earnings fell (likely below-the-line or operating/other costs).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a verified up/downshift in Wall Street consensus cannot be concluded from the inputs.
Wall Street-style pros (from provided info): steady revenue growth and potential value in a pullback if legal/reserve issues stabilize.
Wall Street-style cons (from provided info): earnings/EPS deterioration and litigation reserve overhang; institutional selling (hedge funds, and Monument’s full exit) reinforces a cautious stance.
Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days, and no politician buy/sell activity was provided.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LOPE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LOPE is 230 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 230 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 167.940

Low

230

Averages

230

High

230

Current: 167.940

Low

230

Averages

230

High

230

BMO Capital

Outperform

maintain

$208 -> $222

AI Analysis

2025-05-22

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$208 -> $222

AI Analysis

2025-05-22

maintain

Outperform

Reason

BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Grand Canyon to $222 from $208 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the firm's recent non-deal roadshow. Grand Canyon has shown its ability to grow regardless of the political landscape, and the current environment should be beneficial as the value of its programs are becoming more appreciated by regulators with whom the company has consistent dialogue, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Operating trends for the company are also favorable, specifically in Hybrid/Orbis, which should grow at double-digit rate in the intermediate-term given strong demand for nursing and adding new programs, BMO added.

Barrington Research

Alexander Paris

Buy

Maintains

$205

2025-04-15

Reason

Barrington Research

Alexander Paris

Price Target

$205

2025-04-15

Maintains

Buy

Reason

LOPE Should I Buy

LOPE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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