Buy now: price is sitting just above the key pivot/support area (~10.59) with clear upside levels overhead (11.04/11.32) and solid analyst upside to $12–$13.50.
Options positioning is strongly call-skewed (very low put/call OI ratio), aligning with a bullish bias.
Fundamentals in the latest quarter (2025/Q3) show improving profitability and margins, supporting the bull case even without near-term news catalysts.
This is not a momentum breakout; it’s a support-area entry with defined nearby risk (10.14 then 9.87).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Moving averages are converging, suggesting consolidation and a potential inflection rather than a strong ongoing trend.
MACD: Histogram is negative (-0.0395) but contracting, which typically signals bearish momentum is fading (early stabilization/turn setup).
RSI (6): 60.34, neutral-to-slightly bullish; not overbought, leaving room for upside.
Context: Stock down -0.84% on a weak market (S&P 500 -1.11%), showing roughly market-like defensiveness today rather than stock-specific breakdown.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio = 0.15 (calls heavily outweigh puts), typically a bullish positioning signal.
Liquidity/confirmation: Today’s options volume is 0 (no real-time volume confirmation today), so the bullish read is mainly from positioning, not fresh flow.
Volatility: 30D IV 28.36 vs historical vol 29.61 (IV slightly discounted).
IV percentile/rank: IV percentile 15.54 and IV rank 6.79 (options are relatively cheap vs recent history, consistent with subdued fear/panic).
Open interest: Total OI 875 with today vs OI avg (30D) at 143.91% suggests somewhat elevated positioning versus typical levels.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
and pushes through 11.04, it can trigger a technical follow-through move toward 11.32.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No news in the past week: lack of near-term event-driven catalysts could keep the stock range-bound.
MACD remains below zero (momentum not fully bullish yet); the setup is “improving,” not “confirmed uptrend.”
Restaurant macro headwinds cited by analysts (slowing job growth/consumer confidence, commodity inflation) can cap upside and pressure comps/margins.
If 10.59 fails, downside opens quickly to 10.14 and 9.87.
Gross margin: 33.97, +8.22% YoY (margin expansion is a key positive trend).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes:
2026-01-08: Truist raised PT to $12 from $11, maintained Hold (more constructive valuation view, still cautious stance).
2025-12-15: Jefferies raised PT to $13.50 from $12, maintained Buy (positive outlook).
Trend: Price targets are moving up, and coverage includes at least one Buy with a higher PT.
Wall Street pros: improving targets, profitability/margins trending up.
Wall Street cons: macro/consumer demand uncertainty and commodity inflation concerns; mixed outlook commentary (Hold rating persists at Truist).
Wall Street analysts forecast LOCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LOCO is 12.75 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 13.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LOCO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LOCO is 12.75 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 13.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 10.700
Low
12
Averages
12.75
High
13.5
Current: 10.700
Low
12
Averages
12.75
High
13.5
Truist
Hold
maintain
$11 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$11 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
Hold
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on El Pollo Loco to $12 from $11 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. After a challenging year for restaurants, the outlook for 2026 is mixed, with temporary tailwinds from tax refunds and favorable weather but ongoing headwinds from slowing job growth, consumer confidence, and commodity inflation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$12
2025-12-15
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$12
2025-12-15
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on El Pollo Loco to $13.50 from $12 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a 2026 restaurants and foodservice distribution outlook note.
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