Should I Buy LMT? LMT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

623.580

1 Day change

2.36%

52 Week Range

646.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now: price is sitting right on the pivot (~609.5) while the broader trend remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Near-term upside is supported by pattern-based stats (70% chance of +1.3% next day, +2.79% next week) and constructive options positioning (put/call ratios < 1).
Not a “cheap” setup after the sharp run (analysts repeatedly cite valuation), but for an impatient buyer the current pullback/hold near pivot is an acceptable entry with clear technical levels (S1 ~581.8; R1 ~637.3).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates the primary trend is up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.672) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is cooling rather than reversing.
RSI(6): 48.35 (neutral) — supports the idea of consolidation rather than an immediate overbought pullback.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 609.55 (price 610.51 is essentially at pivot)
- Support: S1 581.75, S2 564.58
- Resistance: R1 637.35, R2 654.52
Practical read: current tape looks like an uptrend digesting gains; a push through ~637 would confirm the next leg higher, while a breakdown below ~582 would be the “trend damage” line.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/call ratios below 1 on both OI (0.68) and volume (0.83) skew bullish (more calls than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV 29.84 vs historical vol 34.44 (IV below HV) but IV percentile is elevated (88.4) — options are priced relatively “rich” versus their own history, reflecting heightened event/trend interest.
Activity: Today’s volume (11,062) is below recent 30D average (~89.6% of avg), suggesting no broad-based panic hedging; more like steady positioning.
Open interest: Calls (58,347) exceed puts (39,756), consistent with a market leaning bullish/covered-call type positioning rather than heavy downside protection.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Defense-spending tailwind: Trump proposal to lift defense budget to $1.5T by 2027 supports multi-year demand visibility for prime contractors.
- Contract wins: $249M SEWIP contract through 2031 adds backlog/visibility.
- Operational momentum: 2025 sales $75B (+6% YoY) and backlog $194B; market is responding to improved demand/visibility (especially munitions/MFC).
- Pattern-based forward tendency: similar-candlestick mapping implies a favorable bias (+4.55% next month probability-weighted path).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Valuation/rally risk: stock is up ~30% year-to-date; multiple analysts explicitly say the improved outlook is largely reflected in the current price.
- Segment/margin/FCF concerns: commentary flags margin risk from contract terms and headwinds to free cash flow from higher capex and pension dynamics (FCF growth constrained into ~2029 per UBS angle).
- Flows: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount +143.99% last quarter), which can cap near-term upside.
- MACD contracting: momentum cooling increases odds of chop/range rather than a clean immediate breakout.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $20.321B, +9.12% YoY (solid top-line acceleration).
Net income: $1.344B, +155.03% YoY (very strong profitability improvement off prior-year comp).
EPS: 5.8, +161.26% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Gross margin: 11.43, +208.09% YoY (notable margin expansion trend in the quarter).
Overall: Q4 showed clear growth and margin improvement, supporting the bull case that operational performance is catching up to demand/backlog strength.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have been broadly raised (MS to $675 from $543; UBS to $663; Jefferies to $630; RBC to $650; Truist to $695; Seaport to $664), reflecting improved demand/backlog/munitions visibility.
Ratings skew: many Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform calls remain (MS Equal Weight, UBS Neutral, Jefferies Hold, RBC Sector Perform, TD Cowen Hold; DZ Bank downgraded to Hold), implying “good company, less compelling at this price.”
Bear case on the Street: Goldman maintains Sell (PT $517) citing growth uncertainty in Aeronautics/RMS and margin/FCF headwinds (capex + pension effects).
Bull case on the Street: Truist/Seaport keep Buy views driven by record backlog, sustained defense spending strength, and incremental programs (e.g., Golden Dome theme).
Net read: Wall Street is acknowledging better fundamentals and visibility, but consensus enthusiasm is tempered by valuation after the run-up.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LMT is 535.5 USD with a low forecast of 430 USD and a high forecast of 605 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 609.180

Low

430

Averages

535.5

High

605

Current: 609.180

Low

430

Averages

535.5

High

605

Citi

John Godyn

Neutral

maintain

$592 -> $673

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Citi

John Godyn

Price Target

$592 -> $673

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi analyst John Godyn raised the firm's price target on Lockheed Martin to $673 from $592 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

BofA

Neutral

maintain

$535 -> $660

2026-02-05

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$535 -> $660

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Lockheed Martin to $660 from $535 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following a "clean quarter" that featured strong customer demand signals and a "robust" initial outlook for 2026. However, with almost $4B of program charges over the past two years, Lockheed still must prove to investors its ability to execute and manage risk, the analyst says.

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LMT Should I Buy

LMT Should I Buy

Should You Buy Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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