Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
Lockheed Martin's earnings call reveals solid financial performance with a 6% increase in Aeronautics sales and a 4% rise in Space sales. The guidance indicates mid-single-digit growth and significant contracts like the $9.8 billion PAC-3 and $10.9 billion CH-53K deals. The Q&A highlights potential margin improvements and strategic investments. While some responses lacked detail, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong sales, optimistic guidance, and robust contract wins, suggesting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
Key Financial Performance
Backlog Record high backlog of $194 billion, about 2.5x annual sales, with a 17% year-over-year increase. This growth was driven by significant awards for key programs such as F-35, PAC-3, JASSM, LRASM, and CH-53K.
Sales Fourth quarter consolidated sales were $20.3 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Full year sales were $75 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Growth was driven by strong performance in Missiles and Fire Control, Aeronautics, and Space.
Free Cash Flow Generated $6.9 billion in free cash flow for 2025, which was above prior expectations. This included prefunding the pension at almost $900 million. The increase was attributed to strong operational execution and collections.
Segment Operating Profit Fourth quarter segment operating profit was $2.1 billion, with a margin of 10.1%. Full year segment operating profit was $6.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year. Growth was driven by higher sales and the absence of prior year charges.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Fourth quarter EPS was $5.80, up significantly year-over-year due to the absence of prior year charges. Full year EPS was $21.49, down 4% year-over-year due to increased interest expense, higher tax rate, and higher operating FAS/CAS expense.
Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) Sales Full year MFC sales increased by 14% to $14.5 billion, driven by production ramps for Precision Fires programs and existing PAC-3 contracts.
Aeronautics Sales Full year Aeronautics sales increased 6% to $30.3 billion, driven by higher F-35 production and sustainment volume, partially offset by lower volume on classified programs.
Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) Sales Full year RMS sales were $17.3 billion, comparable to 2024. Growth in Black Hawk programs and radar programs was offset by charges on other programs.
Space Sales Full year Space sales increased 4% to $13 billion, driven by higher volume on NGI, FBM, and Orion programs, partially offset by decreases in other programs.
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Operating Highlights
F-35 Fighter Jets: Delivered 191 units in 2025, a record number. Investments in Block 4 capability improvements and $1 billion for sustainment system enhancements planned for 2026.
PAC-3 MSE Interceptors: Delivered 620 units in 2025, a record number. Production capacity to increase from 600 to 2,000 units annually under a 7-year framework agreement.
Unmanned Systems: Demonstrated drone wingman control from F-22 cockpit, a first for fifth-generation fighters.
X-59 Aircraft: Completed first flight of this quiet supersonic aircraft, aimed at revolutionizing commercial air travel.
HELIOS Laser Weapon System: Successfully neutralized UAV threats in a U.S. Navy demonstration.
Global Demand for F-35: Belgium and Finland incorporated F-35 aircraft into their air forces in 2025, highlighting international demand.
Missile Production Ramps: Significant growth in production for JASSM/LRASM and Precision Fires programs, with MFC sales up 14% in 2025.
Backlog: Record high backlog of $194 billion, 2.5x annual sales.
Free Cash Flow: Generated $6.9 billion in 2025, exceeding expectations.
Production Facilities: Breaking ground on a new munitions acceleration center in Camden, Arkansas, as part of a multibillion-dollar investment.
Acquisition Transformation: Landmark 7-year framework agreement for PAC-3 MSE interceptors to triple production capacity and align with the Department of War's strategy.
Internal Investments: Planned $5 billion in capital and R&D investments for 2026, a 35% increase year-over-year.
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Risk or Challenges
Supply Chain Disruptions: The company is making substantial investments to rapidly increase production capacity across missiles, sensor suites, battle management systems, and satellites. This suggests potential challenges in meeting demand due to supply chain constraints.
Geopolitical Risks: The company highlighted an 'increasingly unsettled geopolitical environment,' which could impact operations and demand for defense products.
Program-Specific Risks: Unfavorable profit adjustments were noted on Black Hawk programs and other classified programs, indicating potential execution or cost management challenges.
Regulatory and Contractual Risks: The company is working on long-term multiyear agreements with the Department of War, which could pose risks if terms are not finalized or if there are delays in contract definitization.
Economic Uncertainties: Higher interest expenses and tax rates were mentioned as factors impacting earnings, reflecting broader economic uncertainties.
Operational Execution Risks: The company is undergoing a digital transformation and enterprise resource planning system upgrade, which could pose risks to operational efficiency during the transition.
Production and Delivery Risks: The F-35 production rate is holding steady at 156 aircraft per year, but any disruptions in the supply chain or production processes could impact delivery schedules.
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Guidance & Outlook
2026 Financial Outlook: Lockheed Martin expects year-over-year sales growth of approximately 5% at the midpoint, with reported segment operating profit growth exceeding 25%. Free cash flow is anticipated to range between $6.5 billion and $6.8 billion, including a 35% year-over-year increase in investment, with capital and independent research and development approaching $5 billion.
PAC-3 MSE Production: Annual production capacity for PAC-3 MSE interceptors is expected to increase from approximately 600 to 2,000 per year, more than tripling the production rate to support U.S. forces, allies, and partner nations.
F-35 Program: Lockheed Martin plans to invest an additional $1 billion in strategic internal investment for the F-35 program, focusing on the aircraft sustainment system to improve mission capable rates across the fleet. The production rate will hold steady at 156 aircraft per year in 2026.
Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) Growth: Ongoing missile production ramps are projected to drive 14% year-over-year sales growth at the midpoint for MFC in 2026. The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate of at least double digits for MFC sales through the end of the decade.
Space Segment Growth: The Space segment is projected to grow approximately 5% year-over-year at the midpoint in 2026, with strong growth expected in Fleet Ballistic Missile, NGI, and hypersonic programs, as well as space tracking and communication missions.
Strategic Investments: Lockheed Martin plans to make a multibillion-dollar investment over the next three years to accelerate munition production, including building facilities across five states. This includes a new munitions acceleration center facility in Camden, Arkansas.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:Are you changing your overall capital deployment strategy of returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders following the President's executive orders?
A:James Taiclet stated that the company will continue using a disciplined and dynamic capital allocation process. While the process remains the same, conditions have changed due to long-term contracts and new R&D opportunities. The company is also exploring vertical integration opportunities and mergers and acquisitions.
Q:What is the timing of a multiyear for PAC-3 and THAAD, and how are you thinking about MFC margin potential over the long term?
A:James Taiclet mentioned that the timing depends on the congressional budget cycle, with expectations for both programs to be operational under the framework agreement by 2026. Evan Scott added that MFC margins might face slight dilution initially but will improve over time, with potential for exceeding historical margins.
Q:Should we expect a multiyear for the F-35, and how are you thinking about program quantities there?
A:James Taiclet stated that there is no reason why production, modernization, and sustainment activities for the F-35 couldn't be wrapped into a multiyear framework, though additional complexity exists.
Q:How do you think about technology disruption and your role within the broader defense innovation ecosystem?
A:James Taiclet emphasized the company's focus on disruptive technology across all business areas, citing examples like space-based interceptors and partnerships with companies like Saildrone. He highlighted the importance of combining internal capabilities with external partnerships to achieve decisive military advantages.
Q:How do you get comfortable about the 7-year ramp for PAC-3 and THAAD, given historical changes in demand?
A:James Taiclet explained that the agreements include make-whole provisions to ensure the company is compensated if procurement strategies change. He also noted that the administration is working to modify traditional annual appropriations.
Q:Will you be holding the buyback and dividend this year and going forward?
A:James Taiclet stated that capital deployment options will be evaluated dynamically, and decisions will be announced as they occur.
Q:Can you provide an update on the Aero classified program and 2027 pension requirements?
A:James Taiclet reported that the Aero classified program is progressing well, with no additional charges in Q4. Evan Scott mentioned that 2027 will require at least $1 billion in pension funding, but the company may prefund this depending on cash flow performance.
Q:What changed in terms of R&D and CapEx as a percent of sales, and are these new numbers the new norms going forward?
A:James Taiclet noted increased opportunities for advanced technology development due to rising defense budgets and a commitment to innovation from the Pentagon. The company plans to commit more to R&D.
Q:Should we expect the share count to stay flat or go down this year, and can you elaborate on the $1 billion strategic investment on F-35 sustainment?
A:James Taiclet stated that share count will be reported quarterly. The $1 billion investment aims to improve mission-capable rates for the F-35 by addressing spare parts and repair deficits from previous years.
Q:Is there any customer support or CapEx reimbursement in your operating cash flow, and how are the PAC-3 and THAAD frameworks structured?
A:Evan Scott mentioned that the multiyear agreements include cash flow terms to support investments. James Taiclet added that the agreements have profit-sharing and reinvestment mechanisms to enhance program support.
Q:How do you think about the target growth model and segment ranking outside of MFC?
A:James Taiclet and Evan Scott highlighted strong growth in MFC and Space, with upward pressure on revenue and margin opportunities in the coming years. They noted that some dilutive pressure remains from prior programs but expect increased margins in the future.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided giving a direct answer to the question about holding the buyback and dividend, stating only that decisions will be announced as they occur. Additionally, the response to the question about the Aero classified program lacked specific details about progress and risks.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Black Hawk
CMHP program
Camden Arkansas
Department War
Fires program
Fort Worth
Hawk program
Layer
MFC
PAC MSE
Tranche
absence loss
agreement
charge
decrease
drone
facility
fighter jet
increase investment
industry
interceptor
laser
logistics
margin photo
munition
production capacity
program PAC
program loss
program sale
record backlog
rocket
sale production
segment margin
volume increase
weapon system
LMT Transcript
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-29
Lockheed Martin's earnings call reveals solid financial performance with a 6% increase in Aeronautics sales and a 4% rise in Space sales. The guidance indicates mid-single-digit growth and significant contracts like the $9.8 billion PAC-3 and $10.9 billion CH-53K deals. The Q&A highlights potential margin improvements and strategic investments. While some responses lacked detail, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong sales, optimistic guidance, and robust contract wins, suggesting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
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Neutral12-3
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-21
The earnings call summary and Q&A session indicate positive sentiment. Lockheed Martin reaffirmed strong financial guidance, highlighted growth in key programs like F-35 and hypersonics, and maintained a stable free cash flow outlook. The Q&A revealed increased confidence in supply chain capabilities and potential revenue upside in munitions and Golden Dome. Despite some guidance reduction due to CH-53K volumes, management anticipates recovery and growth. Overall, the company's strategic positioning and optimistic outlook suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.
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LMT Slides
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Frequently Asked Questions
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