Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price is sitting just below key support (~74), which raises near-term breakdown risk toward ~66.8.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (puts relatively low vs calls), but implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~91), suggesting the market is pricing big moves and near-term chop rather than a clean trend.
Net: despite strong growth/news catalysts, the tape and near-term setup do not justify chasing here; this is a “wait / don’t buy today” setup.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish short-term—MACD histogram at -1.413 and negatively expanding implies downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~28 suggests the stock is short-term oversold, which can produce sharp bounces, but oversold alone is not a reliable buy trigger without confirmation.
Moving averages: Converging MAs = consolidation/transition; not yet signaling a clear upside trend resumption.
Key levels:
Current: ~73.71
Support: S1 ~74.02 (price is slightly below), then S2 ~66.85
Resistance: Pivot ~85.63, then R1 ~97.25
Quant/Pattern outlook provided: ~80% chance of -0.57% next day, -1.64% next week, +4.47% next month (near-term bearish, medium-term constructive).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.53, volume 0.60) indicate a call-leaning / risk-on bias versus heavy downside hedging.
Activity: Today’s options volume ~20.6k at ~131.5% of 30-day avg = elevated attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~108.65 vs historical vol ~80.47; IV percentile ~90.84 = options are very expensive, implying the market expects large swings (often around catalysts like earnings/news).
Takeaway: Sentiment is optimistic, but the high IV backdrop aligns with a volatile tape—not an easy “buy and it grinds up” setup.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Business momentum: In-force premiums +30% YoY to ~$1.16B; gross profit more than doubled to ~$80M (strong operating traction headline).
Product catalyst: Tesla-specific pay-per-mile insurance (discount tied to full self-driving activation) adds a clear narrative and potential growth channel.
Market validation: Privium Fund Management materially increased its stake (institutional support signal).
Street narrative improving: multiple recent Buy/Outperform stances and higher price targets reinforce the “path to profitability” story.
Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (can re-rate the stock if losses improve / guidance strengthens).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
signals the market expects large moves—direction is uncertain even if sentiment is call-leaning.
Pros: structural cost advantages, strong growth (especially auto), improving loss ratio narrative, visible path to EBITDA profitability (MS view).
Cons: cyclical softening concerns in P&C, execution risk to hit profitability timeline, and at least one major bearish PT far below current price.
Wall Street analysts forecast LMND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LMND is 77.6 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 98 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LMND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LMND is 77.6 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 98 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 68.460
Low
40
Averages
77.6
High
98
Current: 68.460
Low
40
Averages
77.6
High
98
Citizens
Outperform
maintain
$80 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$80 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens raised the firm's price target on Lemonade to $85 from $80 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Fourth quarter results are expected to reflect lighter catastrophe losses and limited mark-to-market impacts, with attention focused on pricing trends amid weakness in property lines, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While property pricing is declining, returns remain strong and casualty lines continue to see solid rate increases, pointing to a market in transition rather than broadly soft, the firm says.
Truist
Arvind Ramnani
Buy
initiated
$98
2026-01-06
Reason
Truist
Arvind Ramnani
Price Target
$98
2026-01-06
initiated
Buy
Reason
Truist analyst Arvind Ramnani initiated coverage of Lemonade with a Buy rating and $98 price target. Lemonade's digital-first approach to the insurance industry provides the company with significant structural advantages such as a lower overall cost base relative to traditional insurers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Lemonade leverages AI, data, and digital tools across entire business, including customer service, claims, processing, and underwriting decisions, which helps to reduce costs and biases, Truist says.
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