Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting on support (S1 ~8.90) while momentum is still bearish (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
Upside case exists (multiple fresh price-target raises to $12 and a potentially strong film slate), but the near-term trade is dominated by earnings after-hours today (2026-02-05) and the setup is not confirmed.
I would only turn bullish immediately if LION reclaims the pivot (~9.41) and holds; until then, this is a HOLD rather than a chase-buy.
Trend/Momentum: Bearish near-term momentum; MACD histogram is -0.115 and getting more negative (downtrend pressure still building).
RSI: RSI_6 at 23.885 indicates the stock is stretched/oversold, which can support a bounce, but it’s not a confirmed reversal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation rather than a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Current ~8.95 is just above S1 8.904 (immediate support). A breakdown targets S2 8.59. Upside hurdles: Pivot 9.412, then R1 9.92.
Pattern-based odds (provided): ~70% chance of a small dip next day (-1.04%), but positive bias over 1W/1M (+7.78% / +8.36%) if support holds and sentiment improves post-event.
Volatility: 30D IV 77.37 vs historical vol 40.28 indicates the market is pricing a large move (event-driven).
IV context: IV percentile 60.49 (elevated vs typical, not extreme); IV has been trending down vs 5D/10D averages (current 77 vs 5D ~98, 10D ~94).
Activity: Today’s option volume is ~78% of 30D average (not a blow-off), while open interest is slightly above average (~104%), suggesting positioning already exists rather than a fresh surge today.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings after-hours on 2026-02-05 can reset expectations quickly if results/guide impress.
Analyst momentum: Multiple recent price-target raises and Buy/Overweight ratings support institutional confidence.
Industry/M&A angle: Bulls view LION as an attractive pure-play studio asset that could benefit from industry consolidation.
Options sentiment: Strongly call-skewed positioning can amplify upside if earnings narrative lands positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
suggests the trend is not yet repaired.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $713.8M, up 3.24% YoY (modest top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income $6.4M, down -115.53% YoY; EPS $0.02, down -114.29% YoY (sharp deterioration).
Margins: Gross margin 35.37%, down -4.61% YoY (margin compression).
Takeaway: Growth exists, but the trend that matters most recently is weaker profitability—earnings/guide needs to show a turn for a durable re-rating.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Analyst stance has been getting more bullish via price-target increases and maintained positive ratings.
2026-02-03 (Benchmark): PT raised to $12 (from $11), Buy maintained; cites improved confidence post-quarterly report and favorable release visibility.
2026-01-30 (Wells Fargo): PT raised to $12 (from $9), Overweight maintained; raised Q3 AOIBDA estimate on Motion Pictures strength; highlights M&A optionality and improving fundamentals.
2025-11-24 (Benchmark): PT raised to $11 (from $8.50), Buy maintained; optimism tied to film performance and longer-dated FY27 framing.
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—improving visibility, studio asset appeal, multiple PT raises. Cons—recent profitability/margin compression and a chart that hasn’t confirmed an uptrend yet.
Politicians/other influential figures: No politician/congress trading data available in the last 90 days (no read-through signal).
Congress trading data: NULL reported in the provided dataset.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast LION stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LION is 9.3 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LION stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LION is 9.3 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 8.820
Low
8
Averages
9.3
High
11
Current: 8.820
Low
8
Averages
9.3
High
11
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
maintain
$10 -> $11
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$10 -> $11
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Lionsgate Studios to $11 from $10 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Recent film success bolsters the firm's confidence in a return to greater than $350m OIBDA in calendar year 2026, arguing that Lionsgate is warranted a premium multiple due to industry demand for pure-play studios.
Benchmark
analyst
Buy
maintain
$11 -> $12
2026-02-03
Reason
Benchmark
analyst
Price Target
$11 -> $12
2026-02-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark raised the firm's price target on Lionsgate Studios to $12 from $11 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects the market to gain further confidence on Lionsgate's financial outlook post the quarterly report this Thursday, says the analyst, who also cites favorable visibility on the film release calendar.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for LION
