Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the stock is extended (short-term overbought) while the broader trend remains bearish (200/20/5-day MA stack).
Near-term risk/reward skews down: price is below key resistance (~532) with clearer downside levels at ~506, ~480, then ~463.
Fundamentals and Wall Street tone are cautious after a Q4 miss and broad price-target cuts; sentiment is not washed-out enough to justify chasing.
Intellectia signals do NOT provide a “must-buy-now” override today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax entry).
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure on moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests rallies can fade rather than trend higher.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.214), implying a short-term rebound attempt, but it’s fighting the larger downtrend.
RSI(6) = 75.12: stretched/overbought on a very short lookback, which reduces the attractiveness of buying immediately.
Positioning/sentiment: Open Interest Put-Call Ratio 1.43 suggests more outstanding puts than calls (more hedging / cautious bias).
Flow today: Option Volume Put-Call Ratio 0.41 indicates call volume > put volume intraday (short-term speculative upside interest), but against cautious OI.
Volatility: IV (30d) 35.83 vs HV 31.29 with IV percentile 76.89 → options pricing reflects elevated uncertainty; not signaling “easy” upside.
Activity: Today’s OI/volume metrics are elevated vs averages (e.g., today vs OI avg 30d ~183.5%), consistent with increased hedging/speculation after earnings/news.
Net income: $142.5M, -27.92% YoY (profit fell faster than sales).
EPS: 4.06, -26.45% YoY (earnings down materially).
Gross margin: 32.58%, down ~3.75% YoY (margin compression versus prior year).
Takeaway: despite strong full-year margin messaging, the most recent quarter shows weakening demand and profitability—usually not the best “buy-right-now” combo when the chart is also heavy.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: broad wave of price-target cuts after Q4, reflecting a reset of expectations.
Bear case: Morgan Stanley Underweight with PT cut to $450 (sees material earnings downside into 2026); JPMorgan also Underweight (PT $541).
Neutral cluster: Baird, RBC, Mizuho, UBS sit Neutral/Sector Perform with targets clustered around $525–$572 (close to current price).
Bull case still present: Goldman Buy (PT $592), Oppenheimer Outperform (PT $630), Barclays Overweight (PTs previously higher).
Wall Street “cons”: near-term residential weakness, Q4 miss, and ongoing estimate/valuation resets.
Net: the mix reads as cautious-to-mixed, not a strong consensus “buy now,” especially with several targets near the current price.
Wall Street analysts forecast LII stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LII is 577.9 USD with a low forecast of 475 USD and a high forecast of 680 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LII stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LII is 577.9 USD with a low forecast of 475 USD and a high forecast of 680 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 517.150
Low
475
Averages
577.9
High
680
Current: 517.150
Low
475
Averages
577.9
High
680
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
downgrade
$475 -> $450
AI Analysis
2026-02-01
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$475 -> $450
AI Analysis
2026-02-01
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Lennox to $450 from $475 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm sees "material" earnings downside into 2026 for Lennox. The company missed Q4 operating earnings estimates by nearly 20%, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Goldman Sachs
Buy
maintain
$608 -> $592
2026-01-30
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$608 -> $592
2026-01-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Lennox to $592 from $608 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported Q4 segment EBIT that was 5% below estimates, driven by weaker than expected sales and margins in HCS - Home Comfort Solutions - partially offset by in-line EBIT performance in Building Climate Solutions segment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The FY26 guide is achievable given price+mix+productivity should more than offset inflation, the firm added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for LII
