Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the near-term setup is driven more by weak fundamentals and worsening Street sentiment than by a durable uptrend.
Despite a short-term technical bounce (MACD improving), the stock is already above key resistance (R2 ~17.65), which reduces the risk/reward for a chase entry.
Institutional behavior is a headwind (hedge funds are selling aggressively), while January deliveries fell YoY and competition is intensifying.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.119) and expanding, signaling short-term upward momentum/bounce.
RSI: RSI(6) ~64.75 (upper-neutral), suggesting momentum is improving but getting closer to short-term stretched levels (not oversold).
Moving averages: Converging moving averages indicates the stock is transitioning (no strong established trend confirmation).
Levels: Pivot 16.97; support S1 16.56 / S2 16.30. Resistance R1 17.39 and R2 17.65.
Price location: Current ~17.88 is above R2 (17.65), implying a breakout attempt; however, buying after the breakout increases the chance of a pullback/retest rather than clean continuation.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: OI put/call 0.81 leans mildly bullish (more call OI than puts). Volume put/call 0.24 is strongly call-skewed (bullish intraday sentiment).
Activity: Today’s option volume (~5.3k) is ~48% of the 30-day average (subdued participation), which weakens the signal strength.
Volatility: 30D IV ~52.9 vs historical vol ~31.8 (options pricing in elevated uncertainty). IV rank/percentile are mid-range, not extreme, but still elevated versus realized vol.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Technical bounce underway (positive/expanding MACD) and price is attempting a breakout above prior resistance (R2).
Options flow is call-skewed (volume put/call 0.24), indicating traders are leaning bullish short term.
Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-02 (pre-market) can act as a volatility catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
fell 7.55% YoY and were the lowest since March
Competitive pressure rising: Analysts cite intensifying competition in family SUV/EREV segment and potential Huawei product-cycle pressure.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 27.36B, down -36.17% YoY (sharp contraction).
Profitability: Net income -625.0M (down -122.21% YoY) and EPS -0.31 (down -123.48% YoY), indicating a swing deeper into losses.
Margins: Gross margin 16.33%, down -24.12% YoY, consistent with pricing pressure/competition and weaker operating leverage.
Takeaway: The latest quarter shows deteriorating growth and margin trends, which makes it difficult to justify an aggressive “buy now” stance without a clear reversal signal.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: clear deterioration—multiple downgrades/target cuts since late 2025 into early 2026.
Key moves:
Jefferies (2026-01-23): Downgraded to Hold from Buy; PT cut to $17.50 from $28.80 (competition + 2026 seen as transition year).
HSBC (2025-12-04): Downgraded to Hold from Buy; PT cut to $18.60 from $30.30 (recall/delivery issues, falling sales; large earnings estimate cuts).
Freedom Capital: Still Buy but PT cut to $25 from $34 after mixed results/weak outlook.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Some longer-term optimism tied to product/AI narrative and potential future platform optionality.
Cons (dominant): Near-term execution/demand concerns, margin compression, heavier competition, and broad PT resets toward the high-teens/low-20s range—limiting upside conviction right now.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast LI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LI is 21.12 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LI is 21.12 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 17.790
Low
17
Averages
21.12
High
32
Current: 17.790
Low
17
Averages
21.12
High
32
Jefferies
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
Jefferies downgraded Li Auto to Hold from Buy with a price target of $17.50, down from $28.80. The firm says competition in the company's family SUV segment has intensified. Huawei's strong product cycle in 2026 could further pressure Li Auto's EREV lineup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While Li's debut of its first AI glass marks an initial move into AI hardware, meaningful commercialization of the company's broader AI initiatives may take time, adds Jefferies. It views 2026 as a transition year for Li.
Piper Sandler
Alexander Potter
Neutral
maintain
$18 -> $19
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Alexander Potter
Price Target
$18 -> $19
2026-01-08
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter raised the firm's price target on Li Auto to $19 from $18 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Discussing the outlook for 2026, the firm says it expects North American sales to fall 1.2% in 2026 due to persistent concerns regarding affordability. Lower sales should have a downward impact on production, but this may be blunted by re-shoring and fewer imports. In Europe, Piper expects sales to revert to growth in 2026, driven by an influx of cheap Chinese vehicles and rising government support. The firm further expects production to remain flat, due to weakening demand for domestic cars and lower exports. In China, Piper sees sales falling 3.0% in 2026 due to macro weakness and expiring subsidies. Continued export growth should partially offset the effect of lower demand on production, which it has as falling 1.8% year-over-year in 2026.
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