Should I Buy LCID? LCID 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Lucid Group Inc (LCID) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.860

1 Day change

13.96%

52 Week Range

35.900

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and pre-market is breaking down toward support.
Options positioning is bearish (puts dominating) and implied volatility is extremely elevated, suggesting downside hedging/speculation into upcoming events.
Fundamentals show strong revenue growth but persistently large losses and deeply negative gross margin, which keeps the risk/reward unattractive for an impatient entry.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and Wall Street targets/risk framing trending down, I would not chase this dip; stay on the sidelines (hold/avoid new buys).

Technical Analysis

Pre-market: 10.15 (-2.22%) while broader market is weak (S&P 500 -0.83%), adding near-term pressure.
Trend: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates a downtrend remains intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0435) but contracting, signaling fading upside momentum rather than a fresh uptrend.
RSI(6): 39.63 (neutral-to-weak); not oversold enough to signal a high-conviction bounce.
Key levels: Pivot 11.042 (price below = bearish bias). Support S1 10.262 has likely been breached pre-market; next support S2 9.781. Resistance levels: R1 11.821, R2 12.302.
Pattern-based projection: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-1.61% over the next week (near-term bias down), but +6.24% over the next month (potential rebound only if support holds).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bearish skew. Put open interest exceeds calls (OI PCR 1.23) and put volume is heavily dominating today (Volume PCR 2.26).
Volatility: IV_30d 103.86 vs historical vol 74.16; IV percentile 93.6 (very elevated), consistent with event-risk pricing and/or heavy hedging demand.
Activity: Today’s volume (30,866) is below the 30-day average (82.78%), so positioning is bearish but not an extreme “panic volume” spike.
Takeaway: Options market is signaling more downside protection/speculation than upside risk-taking going into upcoming catalysts (notably earnings).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings event on 2026-02-24 (after hours) can act as a catalyst if results/guidance improve sentiment.
- Longer-horizon setup: Similar-pattern stats show a positive one-month drift (+6.24%) if the stock can stabilize above the next support zone.
- Revenue growth remains strong (2025/Q3 +68.26% YoY), which can support bullish narratives if margins improve.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and is sliding toward/through support (S1 10.262), increasing risk of a move to S2 (9.781).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 336.58M, up 68.26% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -1.0345B (still deeply negative; improved 8.94% YoY but remains a very large loss).
EPS: -3.31, down 19.07% YoY (worsening per-share performance).
Gross margin: -86.05% (still severely negative; deteriorated YoY), indicating ongoing production/scale inefficiencies.
Bottom line: Growth is not yet translating into improving unit economics; the financial trend remains a headwind for a “buy now” call.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mostly neutral-to-bearish adjustments with meaningful price target cuts.
2026-01-06 (Baird): Neutral; PT cut to 14 from 17 after mixed deliveries.
2025-12-08 (Morgan Stanley): Downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to 10 from 30; cited prolonged EV "winter" through 2026.
2025-11-17 (Stifel): Hold; PT cut to 17 from 21; expects additional capital needs.
2025-11-12 (Benchmark): Kept Buy but slashed PT to 30 from 70 after convertible notes financing (dilution/cost-of-capital overhang).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—technology/product belief persists in some coverage. Cons—capital needs, dilution/financing overhang, and weak EV demand backdrop dominate the near-term view.

Politicians / Congress trading: No recent congress trading data available (no evidence of influential political buying/selling in the provided data).

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LCID stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LCID is 16.73 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

8 Hold

3 Sell

Hold

Current: 9.530

Low

Averages

16.73

High

Current: 9.530

Low

Averages

16.73

High

Baird

Ben Kallo

Neutral

downgrade

$17 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Baird

Ben Kallo

Price Target

$17 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered the firm's price target on Lucid Group to $14 from $17 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the mixed Q4 deliveries report however its full-year production was in-line with guidance.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight -> Underweight

downgrade

$30 -> $10

2025-12-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$30 -> $10

2025-12-08

downgrade

Equal Weight -> Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley downgraded Lucid Group to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $10, down from $30, following a change in analysts. The firm adjusted ratings in the autos and shared mobility group as part of its 2026 outlook. Morgan Stanley is "leaning more cautious" into next year, saying the electric vehicle "winter" will sustain through 2026. This is counterbalanced by a "moderately more positive" outlook on internal combustion engines and hybrids, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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LCID Should I Buy

LCID Should I Buy

Should You Buy Lucid Group Inc (LCID) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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