Should I Buy LBRT? LBRT 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Liberty Energy Inc (LBRT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

25.230

1 Day change

6.37%

52 Week Range

27.210

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Good buy right now (pre-market ~$23.58): price is pulling back into the ~$23.7 pivot/support area while the broader trend remains bullish.
Upside skew remains favorable: Street price targets were aggressively raised to the high-$20s/low-$30s range after Q4 and the 3GW-by-2029 power deployment update.
Near-term overhang is the convert deal: the $700M convertible notes can pressure shares short-term, but strong demand also signals capital access and investor appetite.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available; no notable politician flow provided.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.395 (above 0) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is still positive but cooling short term.
RSI: RSI_6 ~56 (neutral), not overbought—supports the idea this dip can be bought rather than chased.
Key levels: Pivot/support ~23.729 (price is near this area pre-market). Downside supports S1 ~21.207, S2 ~19.65. Upside resistances R1 ~26.25, R2 ~27.807.
Pattern-based odds (provided): modest next-day drift (-0.25%) but positive 1-week (+1.41%) and 1-month (+7.25%) bias—fits a “buy the dip” setup near support.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: Put/Call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.79; Volume PCR 0.6) imply more call interest than puts (bullish leaning).
Activity spike: Today’s option volume is ~480% of the 30-day average, signaling heightened attention/speculation around the news/catalyst.
Volatility: IV30 ~63.7 with IV percentile ~74 (elevated). This typically reflects a market pricing in bigger moves; directionally the flow is more call-leaning, but options are not “cheap.”
Positioning: Calls OI (26,471) > Puts OI (21,037), reinforcing the bullish tilt.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Power/data-center catalyst path: multiple mentions of power reservation agreements and expectations of ~3GW deployed by 2029—a multi-year growth narrative.
- Analyst upgrades/target raises: broad upward revisions after Q4 results and power-generation progress.
- Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Buying” with a large increase in buying activity last quarter (per provided trend data).
- Technical backdrop: still in a bullish moving-average configuration; current dip is occurring within an uptrend rather than a breakdown.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Convertible notes offering ($700M): can create dilution/hedging pressure and cap the stock near-term (often explains pre-market weakness).
- Execution risk: analysts explicitly note there is still execution risk in scaling the power solutions/data-center deployments.
- Earnings quality pressure: despite revenue growth, net income and EPS fell sharply YoY in the latest quarter (details below), which can weigh on confidence if it persists.
- Cyclical exposure: legacy oilfield services cyclicality can reassert if the cycle softens (sector risk).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $1.039B, +10.09% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Profitability: Net income $13.69M, -73.62% YoY; EPS $0.08, -74.19% YoY (sharp compression despite higher revenue).
Gross margin: 9.04%, +22.49% YoY (gross profitability improved, but it didn’t translate to net income—suggesting higher operating costs/other items).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear recent trend: bullish revisions (price targets up, some ratings improving) following Q4 and data-center power momentum.
Key recent changes:
- Piper Sandler (2026-02-02): Upgraded to Overweight, PT $32 (from $17) — sees catalysts and upward earnings revision potential.
- Stifel (2026-02-02): Buy, PT $28 (from $23) — cites strong Q4 EBITDA and progress in Power Generation.
- UBS (2026-01-30): Buy, PT $34 (from $23).
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-30): Overweight, PT $30 (from $23).
- Goldman Sachs (2026-02-04): Neutral, PT $26 (from $20).
- Barclays (2026-02-03): Equal Weight, PT $23 (from $17) — views shares as fairly valued.
- TD Cowen (2026-01-30): Hold, PT $21 (from $19).
Wall Street “pros” view: differentiated growth angle via data-center power solutions + expanding deployment targets.
Wall Street “cons” view: valuation/fair-value calls from some firms plus execution risk and near-term convert overhang.

LBRT Should I Buy