Should I Buy LASR? LASR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy nLIGHT Inc (LASR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

51.120

1 Day change

10.91%

52 Week Range

51.340

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now (near-term). The secondary offering priced at $44 is creating an overhang and the stock is trading below the deal price pre-market (~$42.96), which often caps upside in the very short run.
Technicals are mixed-to-weak short term (bearish MACD momentum, RSI not oversold), despite longer-term moving averages staying bullish.
Options positioning is bullish (call-skewed) and activity is elevated, but high IV suggests the market is pricing big moves (risk of whipsaw).
Wall Street is broadly positive with multiple recent price target increases (55–60) tied to directed-energy defense tailwinds; however, the stock’s near-term setup looks more like a “digest the offering” phase than an immediate rip.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market trend/positioning: Trading ~$42.96 (-2.05% pre-market) with the market risk-off (S&P 500 -0.71%).
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0768 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum building.
RSI: RSI(6) ~41.8 → neutral/soft (not an oversold “snap-back” reading).
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 → longer trend structure remains bullish, but current momentum is fading.
Key levels: Support S1 ~42.59 (very close to pre-market), then S2 ~40.40. Resistance/pivot ~46.13, then R1 ~49.67.
Pattern-based forward bias (statistical): Similar-pattern model implies -0.34% next day, -1.92% next week, -4.25% next month → near-term drift risk remains.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (skew): Very low put/call ratios (OI 0.22, volume 0.20) → strongly call-heavy / bullish positioning.
Activity: Today’s options volume 1709 is ~206.9% of 30-day average → elevated speculation/positioning.
Volatility: IV30 83.4 vs HV 61.85 → options pricing in large moves, often around events (offering/earnings proximity).
IV context: IV percentile 77.69 (high relative to its own history) → premium is expensive; market expects turbulence.
Open interest: Calls OI 6310 vs puts OI 1414 → bullish lean, but could also reflect covered call/structured positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Directed energy narrative strengthening: Analysts characterize LASR as a critical directed-energy “national security” enabler with multi-year adoption tailwinds.
- Capital raise provides funding runway: Offering (~$175M gross) can accelerate scaling/production and program pursuits.
- Improving operating quality indicators: Gross margin improved meaningfully YoY in the latest reported quarter.
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-23 AH): Potential catalyst if guidance/defense program momentum surprises to the upside.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Equity offering dilution/overhang: Newly issued shares priced at $44 can pressure the stock until absorbed; pre-market is already below that level.
- Short-term momentum deterioration: MACD bearish expansion + price sitting near support increases risk of a breakdown to ~$40.40.
- High implied volatility: Market is pricing big swings; near-term price action can be unstable.
- Near-term statistical drift: Pattern-based odds favor weakness over the next week/month.
- Earnings still expected to be slightly negative: Next earnings estimate shows EPS (Est: -0.02), keeping profitability questions active.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $66.74M, +18.91% YoY → solid top-line growth.
Gross margin: 31.09%, +39.04% YoY → meaningful margin improvement (quality of growth improving).
Net income: -$6.87M, down -33.49% YoY (more negative) → still loss-making and not yet consistently profitable.
EPS: -0.14, down -33.33% YoY → profitability lagging revenue/margin gains (operating costs/investment still heavy).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Ratings/targets have been moving up since Q3’25, with multiple firms reiterating Buy/Overweight and lifting targets.
Most recent changes:
- 2026-02-03 Roth Capital: PT $55 (from $44), Buy.
- 2026-01-20 Stifel: PT $60 (from $45), Buy.
- 2025-11-07 Benchmark/Cantor/Stifel: Upgrades/raises to ~$40 area post-Q3 strength.
Wall Street pros: Pure-play directed energy laser exposure; perceived strategic defense asset; expectation of 20%+ A&D growth in 2026–2027 (per Roth’s view).
Wall Street cons: Execution and program timing risk; still unprofitable; near-term dilution and post-offering digestion can mute upside even with strong long-term narratives.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LASR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LASR is 40.6 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 44 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 46.090

Low

Averages

40.6

High

Current: 46.090

Low

Averages

40.6

High

Roth Capital

Buy

upgrade

$44 -> $55

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Roth Capital

Price Target

$44 -> $55

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on nLight to $55 from $44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is increasing its estimates and price target following nLIGHT's recent update as its transition to a pure play directed energy laser provider is accelerating faster than the firm's previous expectations, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm is forecasting 20%+ aerospace and defense related revenue growth for nLIGHT in 2026 and 2027 as the adoption rate of directed energy weapons remains in early days as countries and customers look to add protection and defensive capabilities against the growing use of drone and hypersonic weapons.

Stifel

Jonathan Siegmann

Buy

maintain

$45 -> $60

2026-01-20

Reason

Stifel

Jonathan Siegmann

Price Target

$45 -> $60

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann raised the firm's price target on nLight to $60 from $45 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as the firm transfers coverage of the stock. While technically categorized as an electrical equipment stock outside the aerospace & defense index, the firm views nLight as a "linchpin national security asset critical to future directed energy (laser) weapons." The technology is underpinning new priority investments such as missile-defense, counter-drone operations, and new naval surface ships, notes the analyst, who sees directed energy weapons as "near a generational developmental inflection point which will have game-changing impacts on the future fight across all domains."

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LASR Should I Buy

LASR Should I Buy

Should You Buy nLIGHT Inc (LASR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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