Should I Buy LADR? LADR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.270

1 Day change

-0.68%

52 Week Range

11.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is trading below the pivot (11.046) pre-market (~10.87) immediately after an earnings miss (QDEC 2025 EPS 0.15 vs 0.19 est.), which often keeps near-term pressure on price.
Options positioning is bullish (call-heavy), but implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~92%), suggesting the market is pricing large moves and making risk/reward less attractive for an immediate chase.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Best near-term stance: Hold/avoid initiating new long today unless price reclaims the pivot (~11.05) and stabilizes above it.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0148) but contracting (downside momentum is easing, not reversed).
RSI(6) at ~52.9 (neutral): no oversold bounce signal; also not strong enough for momentum buying.
Moving averages: converging, consistent with consolidation/chop rather than a clean uptrend.
Key levels (using provided pivots):
- Immediate resistance: R1 11.294, then R2 11.448.
- Immediate support: S1 10.798, then S2 10.644.
Current pre-market (~10.87) is below pivot (11.046) and closer to S1, which keeps the technical bias cautious until it reclaims 11.05+.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.25; Volume PCR 0.1) → options flow looks bullish/hedging-light.
Activity: Today’s options volume 55 with ~149% vs 30-day avg, and open interest ~128% vs 30-day avg → heightened attention around the event window.
Volatility: 30D IV ~73% vs historical volatility ~18.9% (very large spread) and IV percentile ~92% → options are pricing unusually big moves; this often coincides with earnings/announcement uncertainty.
Interpretation for stock: call-heavy sentiment is supportive, but the very high IV environment often means the market expects turbulence; not ideal for an impatient “buy now” unless price action confirms a breakout back above pivot/resistance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- News/Events: Company reported Q4 2025 results highlighting full-year distributable earnings and noted a credit rating upgrade with a constructive outlook.
- Shareholder returns: Announced total 2025 dividend of $0.690/share, reinforcing income appeal.
- Pattern-based projection (provided): similar-pattern stats suggest a 70% chance of modest gains over the next day/week/month (small edge, not a strong standalone signal).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 EPS 0.15 vs 0.19 est. (-21%) is a near-term bearish surprise that can cap immediate upside.
- Pre-market tape: down ~1.72% with the broader market also risk-off (S&P500 pre-market -0.67%).
- Fundamentals (latest provided quarter): recent YoY declines in revenue/earnings (see financials) weaken the “buy immediately” case.
- No supportive accumulation signals: hedge funds/insiders reported as neutral, and there’s no Intellectia buy signal today to override the caution.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter financials provided: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $101.94M, -20.75% YoY
- Net income: $19.19M, -31.25% YoY
- EPS: $0.15, -31.82% YoY
- Gross margin: 43.7%, -3.72% YoY
Latest earnings event (calendar): QDEC 2025 pre-market (2026-02-05)
- EPS: 0.15 actual vs 0.19 est. (miss)
Growth takeaway: the most recent detailed quarter shows declining revenue and profitability YoY, and the newest print also missed estimates, which reduces confidence in an immediate entry.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst rating / price target changes: not provided in the dataset, so a verified trend in upgrades/downgrades or target revisions cannot be confirmed here.
Wall Street-style pros (from available info): dividend emphasis, credit rating upgrade, distributable earnings focus.
Wall Street-style cons (from available info): recent YoY declines in key financial metrics and the latest quarter EPS miss, which can pressure sentiment in the short run.
Influential/congress trades: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity are both reported as neutral.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LADR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LADR is 12.33 USD with a low forecast of 11.5 USD and a high forecast of 13.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 10.340

Low

11.5

Averages

12.33

High

13.5

Current: 10.340

Low

11.5

Averages

12.33

High

13.5

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

maintain

$12

AI Analysis

2025-07-25

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$12

AI Analysis

2025-07-25

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Ladder Capital to $12 from $11.75 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Outperform

maintain

2025-07-10

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Price Target

2025-07-10

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Jade Rahmani raised the firm's price target on Ladder Capital to $11.75 from $11.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

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LADR Should I Buy

LADR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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