Should I Buy LAD? LAD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

344.240

1 Day change

3.63%

52 Week Range

405.140

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: LAD is trading just below a key resistance zone (~340) with short-term momentum looking stretched.
No Intellectia edge today: AI Stock Picker and SwingMax both show no active buy signal, so there’s no proprietary “must-buy” trigger.
With earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) and options IV elevated, near-term risk/reward is less attractive for a chase entry.
I would only turn constructive for an impatient entry if it cleanly clears ~340.3 (R1) and holds—otherwise the setup favors waiting/holding rather than buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.392) and expanding, indicating bullish momentum is present.
RSI: RSI(6) ~70.18 suggests the stock is short-term stretched/near overbought conditions (less favorable for an immediate buy).
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply consolidation; price is near a potential decision point rather than a clear trend runway.
Levels to watch: Pivot 330.90 (near-term support reference); Resistance R1 340.28 then R2 346.07; Supports S1 321.52 and S2 315.73.
Practical read: Pre-market ~336.98 is closer to resistance than support, which makes the immediate upside less compelling versus pullback risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.74 is moderately bullish (more call interest than puts).
Flow today: Option volume is overwhelmingly calls (calls 1211 vs puts 6; put/call volume ratio 0.0), indicating bullish day-of flow.
Volatility: 30D IV ~44.91 vs historical vol ~24.1; IV percentile ~88 suggests options are expensive and the market is pricing a bigger move (consistent with upcoming earnings).
Takeaway: Sentiment leans bullish, but elevated IV ahead of earnings increases the chance of sharp moves that make a “buy now” less clean for an impatient entry.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-11 pre-market): potential upside catalyst if results and outlook beat expectations.
- Q3 2025 showed continued growth (revenue +4.93% YoY, EPS +10.51% YoY), supporting the bull case.
- Options market positioning/flow skews bullish (OI and volume favor calls).
- Analysts remain broadly constructive (multiple Overweight/Outperform ratings and targets above current price).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technicals are stretched: RSI near 70 and price sitting just under resistance (~340), which can cap immediate upside.
- Earnings event risk is close (2026-02-11): a miss or cautious guidance can quickly reprice the stock.
- Margin pressure: gross margin down YoY in the latest quarter, which is a key watch item for auto retail.
- Macro/sector backdrop: recent analyst commentary notes “soft” auto sales unit pressures; market pre-market tone is risk-off (S&P 500 -0.65%).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $9.676B, +4.93% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net income: $217.1M, +3.83% YoY (growth, but not accelerating).
EPS: 8.62, +10.51% YoY (stronger per-share growth than revenue).
Gross margin: 14.67%, down 1.08% YoY (profitability/mix pressure is the main negative trend to monitor).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend in ratings/targets: Generally bullish coverage with some near-term estimate caution.
Recent changes: Barclays lowered PT to $390 from $410 (kept Overweight) on softer unit pressures; JPMorgan slightly raised PT to $355 from $350 (kept Overweight).
Other notable views: Evercore ISI reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $500; Morgan Stanley initiated at Equal Weight with a $310 PT (more cautious stance).
Wall Street pros: resilient dealer model, shareholder returns, used-vehicle momentum, and upside to targets.
Wall Street cons: soft new auto unit pressures, margin sensitivity, and a more cautious 2026 industry setup from some firms.
Influence/flows check: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LAD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LAD is 388 USD with a low forecast of 310 USD and a high forecast of 500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 332.180

Low

310

Averages

388

High

500

Current: 332.180

Low

310

Averages

388

High

500

Barclays

Overweight -> NULL

downgrade

$410 -> $390

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$410 -> $390

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

downgrade

Overweight -> NULL

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Lithia & Driveway to $390 from $410 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the auto retail group as part of its Q4 outlook. It broadly lowered estimates across the sector on "soft" auto sales unit pressures. However, trade checks suggest the used vehicle market has good momentum, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

JPMorgan

Rajat Gupta

Overweight

maintain

$350 -> $355

2026-01-16

Reason

JPMorgan

Rajat Gupta

Price Target

$350 -> $355

2026-01-16

maintain

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta raised the firm's price target on Lithia & Driveway to $355 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the franchise auto dealers and marketplaces group as part of a Q4 earnings preview. The group's setup is "neutral to modestly attractive" in the near-term on "resilient" consumer demand and a "reasonable" 2026 earnings bar, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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LAD Should I Buy

LAD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Lithia Motors Inc (LAD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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