Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still slightly bearish (MACD histogram below zero and expanding), and there is no supportive Intellectia timing signal.
Price is sitting near a key pivot/support zone (~13.61 / 13.36). That can create a bounce setup, but the chart does not yet show a confirmed turn.
Options positioning looks bullish (very low put/call ratios), but the absolute volume is tiny, so the signal quality is limited.
Net: HOLD into a clearer technical reversal or a post-earnings setup (earnings 2026-02-26 pre-market).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.00224 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is still building slightly.
RSI: RSI(6) at 36.28 → leaning toward oversold/weak, but not a strong reversal confirmation by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → compression/indecision; typically precedes a larger move, direction not confirmed.
Levels to watch:
Pivot: 13.611 (price is hovering near this area)
Supports: S1 13.363, S2 13.209
Resistances: R1 13.859, R2 14.013
Pattern-based short-term expectation (similar candlesticks): modest edge only (next day +0.12% probability case; next month slightly negative -0.16%) → not a strong immediate directional signal.
Sentiment (flow): Option volume put/call = 0.03 → overwhelmingly call-skewed flow today, but total volume is very small (40 contracts), so interpret cautiously.
Volatility: 30D IV 35.15 vs historical vol 22.56; IV percentile 76.49 → options are relatively expensive, implying elevated uncertainty/possible event premium (earnings ahead).
Activity vs norms: Today’s option volume vs 30D avg shows 12.2 (spike vs average), but again off a low base; open interest today 11,045 with +129.64 vs avg suggests positioning has built up.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are accumulating: buying amount up ~3812.69% QoQ → supportive for medium-term demand.
Dividend/high-yield narrative in recent news flow: investors rotating to dividend income amid turbulence can support yield names like KRP.
Upside to prior target: Mizuho kept Neutral but raised PT to $17 (from $16), implying meaningful upside vs ~13.7 if conditions improve.
Potential catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 pre-market (event can re-rate the stock if distributions/royalty volumes surprise positively).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Macro/backdrop risk for the group: commentary highlights negative sentiment around oversupply/high gas storage (can pressure energy-linked cash flows).
Overall read: growth is steady on revenue, but earnings power is trending down YoY, which can cap near-term upside unless commodity pricing/royalty volumes improve.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes:
2025-12-12: Mizuho raised PT to $17 (from $16) but kept Neutral → sees value, but not enough conviction for a Buy.
2025-11-24: KeyBanc downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight → more cautious view due to choppy oil and muted 2026 growth expectations.
Wall Street pros vs cons (from provided notes):
Pros: underappreciated value in the broader oil & gas space on longer-term fundamentals (Mizuho), PT implies upside.
Cons: near-term macro/commodity backdrop and growth expectations are challenging for smaller minerals entities (KeyBanc), leading to less supportive ratings momentum.
Wall Street analysts forecast KRP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KRP is 17 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KRP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KRP is 17 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.560
Low
12
Averages
17
High
24
Current: 13.560
Low
12
Averages
17
High
24
Mizuho
William Janela
Neutral
maintain
$16 -> $17
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
Reason
Mizuho
William Janela
Price Target
$16 -> $17
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst William Janela raised the firm's price target on Kimbell Royalty Partners to $17 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of its 2026 outlook. While sentiment for U.S. oil and gas names is negative on oil market oversupply and high gas storage, there is "underappreciated value" in the group, particularly in exploration and production on longer-term fundamentals that could start becoming realized in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho suggests a reallocation of risk toward oil E&Ps with a selective bias in gas stocks. It turned more neutral on refining.
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
$NULL
2025-11-24
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$NULL
2025-11-24
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc downgraded Kimbell Royalty Partners to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target. The firm cites the "choppy" oil price environment and expectations for minimal Permian oil growth in 2026 for the downgrade. The downgrade downgrade reflects challenges for smaller minerals entities, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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