Should I Buy KPTI? KPTI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

6.260

1 Day change

2.79%

52 Week Range

10.380

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now: momentum is still bearish (MACD negative/expanding) and price is below the pivot (6.624) with nearby support risk at 6.186.
Options are pricing a big move (very high IV), which makes buying common shares here less attractive for an impatient entry.
Insider activity is a clear negative (selling up ~430% last month), offsetting the fresh bullish analyst initiation.
Best stance now is HOLD (avoid chasing pre-market at 6.3); a buy becomes more compelling only if it reclaims and holds above ~6.62–7.06 with improving momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0814 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI (6): 37.1 → leaning weak/oversold-ish but not a clear reversal signal.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation, but current momentum favors downside continuation unless price breaks up.
Key levels: Pivot 6.624 (current 6.3 below pivot = bearish); Support S1 6.186 then S2 5.916; Resistance R1 7.061 then R2 7.331.
Pattern-based forward odds: ~60% chance of -0.97% next day, -0.58% next week, +1.91% next month → near-term headwinds.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.81 (more calls than puts outstanding) → mildly bullish tilt in open interest.
Volume: Put volume 0 vs call volume 1,212; today’s volume ~123% of 30-day average → bullish day-of-flow, but one-sided.
Volatility: 30D IV 224.7% vs historical vol 69.6%; IV percentile 80 → market pricing a large event-driven move; option premiums are very expensive.
Takeaway: sentiment skews bullish, but the extremely elevated IV suggests a “binary/event” setup rather than a clean technical buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

plus upcoming earnings window (calendar shows QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 pre-market) → potential catalyst for repricing.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event-risk/valuation risk via options: extremely high IV indicates the market expects a sharp move; downside outcomes can be punished.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $44.04M, +13.57% YoY → top-line growth positive.
Net income: -$33.13M (still a loss), improved 3.29% YoY → modest improvement but profitability not reached.
EPS: -3.82, -0.78% YoY → slightly worse YoY on EPS.
Gross margin: 95.2%, down 1.50% YoY → still very high margin profile but trending slightly down.
Congress trading: no recent data available (no signal from political/influential buying/selling in the dataset).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating change: 2026-02-05 Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with Overweight.
Rationale: probability-weighted scenarios around Phase 3 SENTRY (myelofibrosis); 70% probability of success cited; a clean win could drive significant upside.
Wall Street pro view (from provided data): bullish on event-driven upside (trial read-through / repositioning story).
Wall Street con view (implied by context): binary clinical/earnings risk and current “challenged” base business narrative; insider selling undermines confidence near-term.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast KPTI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KPTI is 13.83 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 6.090

Low

Averages

13.83

High

Current: 6.090

Low

Averages

13.83

High

Cantor Fitzgerald

Yanni Souroutzidis

Overweight

initiated

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

Yanni Souroutzidis

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

initiated

Overweight

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Yanni Souroutzidis initiated coverage of Karyopharm with an Overweight rating. The firm cites its probability-weighted scenarios from the company's Phase 3 SENTRY trial in myelofibrosis for the buy rating. It assigns a 70% probability of success. A "clean win" would reposition Karyopharm from "challenged MM player" to "frontline MF combo contender" which would result in significant upside for the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

RBC Capital

Brian Abrahams

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$30 -> $19

2025-11-04

Reason

RBC Capital

Brian Abrahams

Price Target

$30 -> $19

2025-11-04

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Brian Abrahams lowered the firm's price target on Karyopharm to $19 from $30 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company reported a solid quarter for Xpovio sales, while the reduction of financing overhangs, and MF timelines intact for March 2026 make for a favorable risk/reward setup, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC adds however that its reduced price target reflects the recent financing transactions.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for KPTI

Unlock Now

KPTI Should I Buy

KPTI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc (KPTI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch