Not a good buy right now at ~105.57 pre-market: upside looks capped near resistance (108.68) while a major analyst price target sits below the current price (JPMorgan PT $100).
With no Intellectia buy signals today and weakening momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding), the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer.
Best stance now: HOLD / avoid initiating new longs here; the setup improves materially on a pullback toward 102.60 (S1) or ~100.73 (S2).
Technical Analysis
Trend: Medium/long-term trend remains constructive (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader structure is bullish.
Momentum: Near-term momentum is slipping (MACD histogram -0.0268 and negatively expanding), which often precedes consolidation or a minor pullback.
RSI: RSI(6) at 54.16 is neutral—no oversold “snap-back” edge.
Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.09 indicates very call-heavy open interest (bullish/skewed optimism), but it can also signal crowded positioning.
Activity: Options volume is extremely light (only 8 calls, 0 puts today), so sentiment read-through is low-confidence.
Volatility: 30D IV 27.92 vs historical vol 23.14 (IV > HV) suggests options are priced richer than realized volatility; not screaming “cheap risk” for new buyers.
IV percentile ~60.6: volatility is moderately elevated versus its recent distribution—more consistent with caution than aggressive dip-buying.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
showed continued top-line growth (+5% YoY).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analyst-driven headwind: JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral with PT $100 (below current price), explicitly citing valuation and recommending profit-taking after the rally.
Near-term momentum deterioration (negative and widening MACD histogram) increases odds of a pullback from the pivot area.
Fundamentals: gross margin declined YoY, which can pressure future earnings quality if it persists.
No supportive news flow in the last week to counterbalance the downgrade/valuation narrative.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 3.862B, +5.00% YoY (steady growth).
Net income: 316.9M, +2.35% YoY (slower than revenue, implying cost/mix pressure).
EPS: 0.15, +0.00% YoY (flat; not accelerating).
Gross margin: 45.06%, down 2.28% YoY (key negative trend to monitor into the next earnings print).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings/targets have softened.
2026-01-28: JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; PT $100 (unchanged) and suggested taking profits due to valuation.
2025-11-12: UBS maintained Buy but cut PT to $109 from $113.
Wall Street pros: resilient revenue growth, defensive beverage exposure, and still a constructive longer-term price trend.
Wall Street cons: valuation concerns after the run-up (explicitly flagged by JPM), margin compression, and limited upside versus targets given the stock is already above JPM’s PT and near UBS’s trimmed PT.
Wall Street analysts forecast KOF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KOF is 107.33 USD with a low forecast of 98 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KOF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KOF is 107.33 USD with a low forecast of 98 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 108.520
Low
98
Averages
107.33
High
115
Current: 108.520
Low
98
Averages
107.33
High
115
JPMorgan
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$100
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan downgraded Coca-Cola Femsa to Neutral from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $100. The firm recommends taking profits following the stock's 10% rally year-to-date. It cites valuation for the downgrade.
UBS
Rodrigo Alcantara
Buy
maintain
$113 -> $109
2025-11-12
Reason
UBS
Rodrigo Alcantara
Price Target
$113 -> $109
2025-11-12
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Rodrigo Alcantara lowered the firm's price target on Coca-Cola Femsa to $109 from $113 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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