Should I Buy KNSL? KNSL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

414.100

1 Day change

0.89%

52 Week Range

512.760

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend is technically bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is approaching resistance (R1 ~412) rather than support.
Options positioning is mixed but skewed defensive on open interest (put-heavy), while implied volatility is elevated into earnings—this is not a clean, low-friction entry.
Fundamentals remain strong (2025/Q3 strong YoY growth), but near-term catalysts are dominated by the 2026-02-12 earnings event and continued concerns about P&C pricing softening.
Trading behavior is a yellow flag: insiders have been selling aggressively (selling up ~242.61% over the last month).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Current price (pre-market): 408.88; sitting above pivot support (~398.71) but below/near first resistance (R1 ~412.34), implying limited upside room before supply.
Trend: Bearish moving average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the broader trend is still down/weak despite any short-term bounce.
MACD: Histogram -0.12 (below zero) but negatively contracting—downtrend momentum is easing, yet not flipped bullish.
RSI(6): 68.25 (upper-neutral/near-overbought); upside may be harder to sustain without a breakout.
Key levels: Support S1 ~385.09 (then S2 ~376.68); Resistance R1 ~412.34 (then R2 ~420.75).
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): mild downside bias (-0.4% next week, -0.24% next month), not supportive of a chase entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Put-heavy open interest (PCR 1.8) points to hedging/defensive positioning; however, today’s volume is call-skewed (volume PCR 0.2), suggesting short-term bullish speculation.
Volatility: 30D IV ~49.4 vs historical vol ~28.42; IV percentile ~92.43 indicates options are expensive and the market is pricing a large move (consistent with upcoming earnings).
Activity: Volume ~~104 and OI ~2254; both slightly above 30-day norms (~~105–106%), indicating elevated attention into the event window.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 after hours (EPS est. 5.30). A beat/raise could quickly re-rate sentiment.
- Strong operating momentum in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue, net income, and EPS all grew ~19–24% YoY.
- Analyst stance remains broadly constructive (Buy/Overweight ratings from BofA and Morgan Stanley), implying institutional support if results hold up.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling: selling amount increased ~242.61% over the last month (clear near-term confidence overhang).
- Sector backdrop: multiple analysts highlight softening pricing/property cycle risk and rising loss costs vs pricing in parts of P&C—fundamental narrative has “tipped in the wrong direction” per BofA.
- Technical setup is not favorable for an impatient buy: bearish MA structure and price near resistance.
- No positive news flow in the past week to offset the above; near-term narrative is dominated by cycle concerns and earnings uncertainty.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $473.02M, +19.19% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: $141.65M, +24.00% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: 6.09, +24.29% YoY (solid per-share growth).
Takeaway: fundamentals are strong, but the market is currently more focused on forward pricing/loss-cost dynamics and the upcoming earnings event.
Congress/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from this channel).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have been cut while ratings stayed mostly positive—indicates pros like the company but are tempering expectations/valuation amid a potentially softening cycle.
BofA (2026-01-05): Buy; PT cut to $500 from $536 (cites less-positive pricing trends; loss costs rising).
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-16): Overweight; PT cut to $450 from $480 (sector challenges, but valuation/casualty pricing supportive).
RBC (2025-11-24): Sector Perform; PT $415 (praises underwriting margins but flags multiple/slowdown).
Wall Street pro view (pros): best-in-class underwriting profitability, resilient growth track record.
Wall Street con view (cons): cycle/pricing pressure risk, rising loss costs, and valuation/multiple sensitivity as growth slows.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast KNSL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KNSL is 465.89 USD with a low forecast of 415 USD and a high forecast of 510 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

8 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 410.440

Low

415

Averages

465.89

High

510

Current: 410.440

Low

415

Averages

465.89

High

510

BofA

Buy

downgrade

$536 -> $500

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$536 -> $500

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BofA lowered the firm's price target on Kinsale Capital to $500 from $536 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. As in 2025, the pricing trends for most P&C insurance products do not appear positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While pricing for liability lines remains positive, it seems that loss costs are rising more steeply than prices, the analyst says, adding that personal auto rates are flattish, while some investors are expecting decline in response to high profitability. The firm added, however, that underwriter valuations hardly look expensive, even as fundamentals have tipped in the "wrong direction."

Morgan Stanley

Bob Huang

Overweight

downgrade

$480 -> $450

2025-12-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Bob Huang

Price Target

$480 -> $450

2025-12-16

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang lowered the firm's price target on Kinsale Capital to $450 from $480 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Although the P&C insurance sector faces known challenges, including softening pricing in property and more competition in personal auto, attractive valuations and strong casualty pricing partially offset this, says the analyst, who maintains an Attractive industry view heading into 2026.

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KNSL Should I Buy

KNSL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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