Should I Buy KNF? KNF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Knife River Corp (KNF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

80.000

1 Day change

4.93%

52 Week Range

105.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: trend/structure is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is sitting between support (73.43) and resistance (79.15) without a clear momentum trigger.
Options pricing implies elevated uncertainty (IV percentile ~84.9) heading into earnings (2026-02-17 pre-market), which makes “buy now” less attractive unless you specifically want to take an earnings bet.
Analyst view is mixed-to-neutral overall (two Neutrals/Equal Weight vs one Buy), and the latest notable change was a price target cut to $75—close to the current pre-market price (~$76.46).
Net: HOLD/AVOID new buys today; a cleaner buy setup would require reclaiming ~79.15 (R1) with momentum, or a pullback closer to ~73.43 support with stabilization.

Technical Analysis

Current price (pre-market): ~76.46, below the key resistance band at R1 ~79.15 and R2 ~82.69; above pivot support ~73.43.
Trend: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the broader downtrend is still in control.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.31 (below zero) but negatively contracting, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, not reversed.
RSI(6) ~65.1: near the upper end of neutral—more consistent with a bounce attempt than a fresh oversold buy signal.
Levels to watch: Support ~73.43 (pivot) then ~67.71 (S1). Resistance ~79.15 (R1); a break above can open room toward ~82.69 (R2).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.22 indicates call open interest dominates (more bullish/less hedged positioning).
Flow today is tiny: total volume 4 contracts, so day-of sentiment is not very reliable; volume put/call ratio is 1.0 (balanced) on negligible size.
Volatility: IV 30d ~53.6 vs HV ~51.7 (IV slightly above realized), and IV percentile ~84.9 suggests options are expensive versus the past year’s range—consistent with earnings/event premium.
Activity spike: today’s volume vs 30-day avg ~19x, but again from a very low base (small absolute contract count).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

with improving MACD, technicals could shift into a tradable rebound toward ~82.69 (R2).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and stayed Equal Weight; current price is already above that cut target.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $1.2037B, +8.90% YoY (top-line strength).
Profitability: Net income $143.151M, -3.34% YoY; EPS 2.52, -3.08% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 23.62%, down 4.37% YoY—supports the narrative that costs/absorption/volume issues are pressuring near-term profitability despite revenue growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions:
- 2026-01-29 Wells Fargo: Equal Weight maintained; PT cut to $75 from $81 (more cautious, and the new PT is near current price).
- 2026-01-16 B. Riley: Initiated Buy; PT $92 (bull case: mispricing, temporary headwinds, pricing power intact).
- 2025-12-04 JPMorgan: Initiated Neutral; PT $83 (pros: vertically integrated footprint; cons: limited near/medium-term visibility, weaker FCF conversion vs peers, no clear cash return story yet).
Wall Street pros: infrastructure exposure + vertically integrated materials footprint; upside if margin/absorption normalizes.
Wall Street cons: near-term visibility and margin execution risk; mixed conviction overall (two neutral-ish stances vs one Buy).

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast KNF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KNF is 88 USD with a low forecast of 75 USD and a high forecast of 106 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 76.240

Low

Averages

High

106

Current: 76.240

Low

Averages

High

106

Wells Fargo

Timna Tanners

Equal Weight

downgrade

$81 -> $75

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Wells Fargo

Timna Tanners

Price Target

$81 -> $75

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners lowered the firm's price target on Knife River to $75 from $81 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm remains selective in its building mats recommendations, preferring early-cycle exposure as Wells anticipates some housing/remodeling recovery.

B. Riley

Buy

initiated

$92

2026-01-16

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$92

2026-01-16

initiated

Buy

Reason

B. Riley initiated coverage of Knife River with a Buy rating and $92 price target. Knife River is a vertically integrated construction materials company operating across 14 states, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the stock is "mispriced" following the recent underperformance versus peers. The compan's 2025 margin compression reflects temporary volume and absorption headwinds from Oregon funding delays and central region flooding, not a breakdown in pricing power, contends Riley.

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KNF Should I Buy

KNF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Knife River Corp (KNF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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