Not a good buy right now: the stock is technically stretched (RSI~89) after a sharp earnings-driven spike, making the risk/reward unfavorable for an impatient entry.
If you must act immediately, this is closer to a trim/sell (or avoid chasing) than a fresh buy, with price sitting near key resistance (R1 ~39.32) and limited near-term upside vs downside back to the pivot/support.
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy (very low put/call ratios), which reads as crowded bullish sentiment and can coincide with short-term pullbacks.
Wall Street price targets ($25–$28) are far below the current price ($38), implying pros see the stock as overextended despite improved fundamentals.
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.181) supports an uptrend.
Momentum: RSI_6 ~89 signals strongly overbought conditions—often followed by consolidation or a pullback.
Levels: Pivot support ~36.65; deeper supports S1 ~33.99 and S2 ~32.35.
Resistance: R1 39.32 then R2 ~40.96; current pre-market (37.42) sits below R1 after a big run.
Pattern-based forward view provided: ~50% chance of only ~0.63% next day / ~0.3% next week vs ~6.26% next month—near-term edge looks modest after the surge.
Activity: Today’s volume 379 vs 30-day average (about +193%) and open interest also elevated (today vs avg ~+263%)—unusual attention following the earnings move.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~36.37 vs HV ~35.9 (roughly in-line). IV percentile ~29.6 / IV rank ~12.18 suggests IV is not especially “expensive” relative to its recent range, despite the post-earnings move.
Takeaway: Options market is bullish, but the positioning is so one-sided it increases the odds of a near-term shakeout rather than a clean continuation.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
results: ~10% YoY sales growth and strong EPS improvement; management commentary/outlook described as optimistic for FY ‘
Tungsten price dynamics: customer “pull-forward” purchasing and price-driven demand tailwinds referenced in news flow.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
sit far below current price, suggesting limited upside per analysts.
Cons: valuation/price appears ahead of fundamentals given targets well below spot and multiple cautious ratings.
Wall Street analysts forecast KMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMT is 29.83 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMT is 29.83 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 38.280
Low
25
Averages
29.83
High
40
Current: 38.280
Low
25
Averages
29.83
High
40
Goldman Sachs
Sell
maintain
$28 -> $32
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$28 -> $32
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Sell
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Kennametal to $32 from $28 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm raised its estimates largely on tungsten pricing.
UBS
Neutral
maintain
$32 -> $39
2026-02-05
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$32 -> $39
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Kennametal to $39 from $32 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Kennametal posted a Q2 beat and raise driven by the price of tungsten, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis, Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for KMT