Not a good buy right now: the stock is gapping down ~16% pre-market on a weak Q4 (loss and big EPS miss), signaling a clear break in near-term confidence.
Options positioning is aggressively bearish (very high put/call ratios) and IV is extremely elevated, implying the market expects continued turbulence rather than a quick rebound.
Wall Street sentiment has deteriorated (recent downgrades) and the narrative is “several quarters” to fix fundamentals—too slow for an impatient entry.
Insider buying is a positive, but it’s currently outweighed by the earnings disappointment, downgrades, and the sharp technical breakdown.
Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly above zero (0.0393) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI(6) at 44.06: neutral-to-weak; not showing a strong oversold reversal signal yet.
Key levels: Prior pivot/resistance bands (Pivot 38.782; S1 38.142; S2 37.747) are far above the pre-market price (~32.35), meaning price has likely broken multiple supports and is in “gap-down discovery” mode (technical damage).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Heavily bearish. Put open interest (573) massively exceeds call OI (89) (OI PCR 6.44).
Flow: Put volume dominates (put/call volume ratio 19.0) on elevated activity (today volume vs 30-day avg ~166.7%).
Volatility: 30D IV ~85.21% with IV percentile ~98.8 (extreme), indicating fear/uncertainty and expensive option pricing.
Interpretation: Market is positioned for further downside or continued volatility; this is not the options backdrop typically seen at clean bottoms.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Dividend support: Board declared a $0.32 quarterly dividend (payable March 3, 2026), reinforcing commitment to shareholder returns.
Insider activity: Insiders are buying, with buying amount up ~133% over the last month (constructive signal).
Pattern-based projection: Similar-candlestick analysis suggests a favorable 1-month skew (+9.72%), though near-term is still weak.
Profitability setback: Q4 net loss reported; management cited challenges (notably California and Florida), keeping underwriting/profitability concerns in focus.
Sharp gap down pre-market (~-16%): suggests institutions are repricing the stock lower immediately.
Options market positioning: extreme put dominance + very high IV implies traders expect ongoing downside/instability.
Sector/industry concern: Auto insurance fundamentals cited as deteriorating by an analyst (potential for higher loss ratios and lower future earnings).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue $1.1376B, down -4.52% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$8M (down -108.21% YoY), swinging into a loss.
Takeaway: Growth and profitability trends weakened materially in 2025/Q4, aligning with the stock’s sharp selloff.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2026-02-05: Citizens downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform (no PT), citing disappointing Q4 and an uncertain near-term path; expects several quarters before improved sales/earnings.
2025-12-18: William Blair downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform (no PT), warning auto insurance fundamentals are deteriorating and could pressure loss ratios/earnings into 2H26.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Long-run improvement possible if underwriting/pricing stabilizes; dividend maintained.
Cons: Near-term earnings path is uncertain, fundamentals in auto may be worsening, and recent downgrades suggest limited confidence in outperformance over the next 12 months.
Wall Street analysts forecast KMPR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMPR is 47.5 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KMPR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMPR is 47.5 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 33.460
Low
35
Averages
47.5
High
60
Current: 33.460
Low
35
Averages
47.5
High
60
Citizens
Matthew Carletti
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Citizens
Matthew Carletti
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Citizens analyst Matthew Carletti downgraded Kemper to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target post the Q4 report. The results "disappointed and create an uncertain near-term path forward," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Kemper needs several quarters before seeing improved sales and earnings. Investors are "frustrated at the continuation of the two steps forward, one step back cadence that has been the KMPR," contends Citizens.
William Blair
Market Perform -> Underperform
downgrade
2025-12-18
Reason
William Blair
Price Target
2025-12-18
downgrade
Market Perform -> Underperform
Reason
William Blair downgraded Kemper to Underperform from Market Perform without a price target. The firm cut its near-term view on the auto insurance sector. Recent conversations with market participants suggest that auto fundamentals have begun to materially deteriorate in the last few months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. William Blair believes this will drive rising loss ratios and lower earnings in the back half of 2026. The stocks in the group will likely struggle to outperform in the next 12 months, the firm contends.
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