Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: near-term technicals and pattern-based odds point to a likely short-term dip despite a strong pre-market print.
Options positioning is extremely call-skewed and volume is spiking, which can support upside, but that also raises the risk of a fade if momentum doesn’t follow through.
With earnings on 2026-02-11 (after hours), the next few sessions are likely headline-driven; I would not chase strength into resistance without a clear trend reversal.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.115) and still below zero (bearish), though it is “negatively contracting,” suggesting downside momentum is slowing.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~35.7 is weak/near-oversold territory, which supports a potential bounce, but it is not yet a strong reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Key levels (tight for trading):
Pivot: 9.237 (price below pivot = still technically weak)
Support: S1 8.824, S2 8.57
Resistance: R1 9.65, R2 9.904
Setup takeaway: pre-market strength to 9.15 is positive, but the stock is still fighting overhead resistance (pivot/R1). A clean reclaim of the pivot and hold would improve the buy case; otherwise, downside retest of 8.82 is plausible.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Extremely call-heavy positioning (OI put/call 0.08; volume put/call 0.05) implies bullish/speculative appetite rather than hedging.
Activity: Today’s options volume 367 vs 30-day average is elevated (~20.27x), signaling a sentiment/positioning surge.
Volatility: 30D IV ~68.39 vs HV ~60.14 (options pricing in elevated moves). IV percentile ~24 and IV rank ~13 suggest IV is relatively low versus its own recent history, which is supportive for buyers of optionality.
Interpretation: Options market is leaning strongly bullish, but the heavy call skew can also mean crowded short-dated positioning that may unwind quickly if price stalls near resistance.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
can attract momentum traders if it holds above the pivot (9.
during regular hours.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical posture remains bearish-to-neutral: price is still below the pivot, MACD remains negative, and moving averages are not trending up.
Pattern-based forecast indicates elevated odds of a small next-day decline (model: ~80% chance of -1.49% next day), suggesting chasing pre-market strength is statistically unfavorable.
News flow includes a clearly negative datapoint on adoption scale: only ~10 commercial vehicles in operation and market cap drawdown (from ~$2.5B to ~$1.6B) highlighting commercialization risk.
No supportive “smart money” confirmation in provided flow: hedge funds and insiders are described as neutral; no recent congress activity reported.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $0.77M, +92.5% YoY (strong growth rate, but from a very small base).
Profitability: Net income - $269.9M (loss), shown as “up 1310% YoY” — effectively indicates the loss magnitude worsened materially YoY.
EPS: -1.49, shown as “up 1254% YoY” — consistent with significantly negative earnings (deterioration in real terms despite the “increased” label).
Gross margin: reported at 100 (likely distorted by very low revenue / accounting mix; not yet a proof of scalable unit economics).
Takeaway: top-line is growing, but the business is still deep in investment/loss mode; near-term stock action will be driven more by expectations and catalysts than steady fundamentals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street stance is bullish with rising visibility:
2026-01-02: Northland reiterates Outperform, names KDK a top pick for 2026, PT $17 (large upside case tied to “virtual driver” solving autonomy).
2025-11-10: TD Cowen initiates Buy, PT $14, highlighting AV trucking plus industrial/off-road diversification.
Wall Street pros (bull case): differentiated autonomy stack, large ROI pitch for trucking customers, multiple 2026 catalysts, potential diversification beyond on-road trucking.
Wall Street cons (bear case implied by context/news): commercialization/adoption appears early (limited commercial fleet), and financial losses remain very large versus current revenue.
Wall Street analysts forecast KDK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KDK is 14.38 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KDK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KDK is 14.38 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 8.730
Low
13
Averages
14.38
High
17
Current: 8.730
Low
13
Averages
14.38
High
17
Northland
initiated
$17
AI Analysis
2026-01-02
Reason
Northland
Price Target
$17
AI Analysis
2026-01-02
initiated
Reason
Northland named Kodiak AI a top pick for 2026 with an Outperform rating and $17 price target. The firm believes the company "has solved one of the hardest problems in technology, the virtual driver." Kodiak's virtual driver opens up a large return on investment for its trucking customers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees multiple share catalysts for the company in 2026 and 55% share upside to $17.
TD Cowen
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$14
2025-11-10
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$14
2025-11-10
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
As previously reported, TD Cowen initiated coverage of Kodiak AI with a Buy rating and $14 price target, citing both a positive stance on the AV Trucking vertical and Kodiak's unique exposure to global Industrial and off-road markets. The firm estimates these markets could alone scale Kodiak to breakeven while diversifying revenue and increasing the stock's catalyst potential, the analyst tells investors.
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