Not a good buy right now at ~$61.25 pre-market: price is pressing into near-term resistance while options flow is bearish and fundamentals are weakening.
Upside exists if housing sentiment improves, but the current setup favors a near-term pullback/mean reversion rather than an immediate chase entry.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (bullish momentum), but RSI(6) ~71 suggests the stock is near short-term overbought conditions.
Moving averages: converging MAs imply trend is not strongly established; price can chop around key levels.
Key levels: Pivot ~59.27 is the main “line in the sand.” Immediate resistance is R1 ~61.99 (very close to pre-market 61.25), then R2 ~63.66.
Practical read: risk/reward is not attractive buying into ~62 resistance with RSI stretched; odds favor either a stall below R1 or a pullback toward the pivot.
Pattern-based forecast (provided): ~70% chance of ~0.09% next day, +3.94% next week, +2.48% next month — modest edge, not a “must-buy now” signal.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ~1.01 is essentially neutral positioning, but volume put/call 2.72 is notably bearish for the day (more put trading than calls).
Volatility: 30D IV ~43.8 vs HV ~34.3 implies options are pricing elevated risk; IV percentile ~82.9 suggests IV is high versus its recent history.
Takeaway: near-term options activity leans defensive/bearish, which does not support an “impatient buy right now” entry.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Company recognition: named to Fortune’s World’s Most Admired Companies list (reputation/brand positive).
Community launch in Daly City, CA (high-price-point product could support ASPs).
Some Street support remains: UBS keeps a Buy; Barclays remains Overweight (sector sentiment could improve if macro stabilizes).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with RSI stretched; technicals suggest limited immediate upside before a pause/pullback.
Net income: $100.97M, -46.67% YoY (profit down sharply).
EPS: $1.55, -38.49% YoY (earnings compression).
Gross margin: 17.37%, -17.79% YoY (margin pressure consistent with a more competitive selling environment).
Growth read-through: weakening demand/mix and/or increased incentives/cost pressures are showing up; this backdrop argues against an aggressive buy “right now.”
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets were broadly cut after the Q4 report, with several firms staying Neutral/Market Perform; one downgrade (Raymond James to Market Perform).
Notable calls:
BofA: Neutral; PT raised to 63 (from 58) on 2026-01-16, but the view remains cautious into 2026.
UBS: Buy; PT cut to 71 (from 77) but still constructive on 2026 homebuilding conditions.
JPMorgan: Neutral; large PT cut to 50 (from 71), citing weaker forward ROE.
Barclays: Overweight; PT cut to 62 (from 71), pointing to margin headwinds.
RBC: Sector Perform; PT cut to 54 (from 59), highlighting tepid demand and backlog/spec competition risk.
Wall Street pros vs cons summary:
Pros: potential 2026 macro improvement, constrained long-term housing supply, some valuation support vs book value mentioned by BofA.
Cons: margin/ROE reset risk into 2026, competitive incentive environment, and multiple PT cuts/downgrade signal reduced conviction.
Wall Street analysts forecast KBH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KBH is 58.38 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KBH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KBH is 58.38 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 61.610
Low
50
Averages
58.38
High
71
Current: 61.610
Low
50
Averages
58.38
High
71
BofA
Rafe Jadrosich
Neutral
maintain
$58 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
BofA
Rafe Jadrosich
Price Target
$58 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Rafe Jadrosich raised the firm's price target on KB Home to $63 from $58 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After underperforming the market in 2025, homebuilder stocks have rallied sharply year-to-date, but the firm believes weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation and a more competitive selling environment driven by elevated new and resale inventory will pressure fundamentals through 2026 and make it a "reset year for homebuilders," the analyst tells investors in a year ahead note on the group.
UBS
Buy
maintain
$77 -> $71
2026-01-06
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$77 -> $71
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on KB Home to $71 from $77 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. UBS believes 2026 is poised to be a better year for homebuilding, as builders have moderated production, helping to stabilize/reduce inventory in certain key markets, while overall housing supply remains constrained relative to history, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm thinks incremental improvement in the macro could catalyze sentiment and the stocks.
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