Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: short-term momentum is weak (MACD negative/expanding) and options positioning is aggressively bearish.
Price is sitting near first support (14.84); a break below support would likely accelerate downside, while upside faces immediate resistance near the pivot (15.62).
Intellectia signals do not provide a “must-buy” edge today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax), so there’s no strong reason to chase an entry pre-market.
Net: stay on the sidelines until price reclaims the pivot with improving momentum, or until sentiment (options/flows) normalizes.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0311 and negatively expanding → downside momentum building in the near-term.
RSI(6) ~38.14 → weak/soft demand (not oversold enough to signal a strong bounce).
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 is bullish structurally, but current indicators suggest a pullback within that broader uptrend.
Key levels: Support S1=14.838 then S2=14.356; Resistance Pivot=15.619 then R1=16.401.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlesticks): 60% probability of mild drift down next day (-0.23%), weaker next week (-1.34%) and month (-5.57%).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning is heavily skewed to puts: Put OI 8,280 vs Call OI 1,940 (OI Put/Call=4.27) → bearish hedging/speculation bias.
Daily flow is extremely put-dominant: put/call volume ratio 15.4 (77 puts vs 5 calls) → strongly negative near-term sentiment.
Implied volatility is elevated: 30D IV ~107.42% vs historical vol ~61.09% → market pricing large moves; sentiment is fearful.
Today’s option volume is far below recent averages (today 82 vs 5D avg 254.4 / 10D avg 739.7), but the volume that did trade leaned decisively bearish.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
suggests the longer-term trend could still be intact if support holds.
Options market sentiment is sharply bearish (very high put/call ratios) → traders positioning for downside.
Short-term technical momentum is deteriorating (MACD negative and expanding) → increases odds that support breaks.
Competitive backdrop: positive data from competitor Pharvaris (PHVS) in the on-demand setting highlights future competitive pressure versus Ekterly.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $13.692M (flat YoY as provided) → growth not yet showing acceleration in the snapshot.
Profitability improving but still deeply negative: Net income -$49.482M (improved ~70.46% YoY), EPS -0.92 (improved ~9.52% YoY).
Gross margin: 91% (flat YoY) → strong product economics, but operating losses remain the key issue.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is clearly bullish: multiple firms raised price targets and maintained Buy/Outperform.
Key changes: TD Cowen PT to $35 (Buy); H.C. Wainwright PT to $37 (Buy); Needham PT to $32 (Buy, added to Conviction List); Citizens PT to $29 (Outperform).
Wall Street “pros” view: Ekterly launch traction + oral/on-demand therapy thesis could drive upside as demand confirms.
Wall Street “cons” view: near-term demand confirmation still needs follow-through (start forms/rebounds), and competitive threats (e.g., Pharvaris) remain a risk.
Wall Street analysts forecast KALV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KALV is 34.38 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 39 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KALV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KALV is 34.38 USD with a low forecast of 29 USD and a high forecast of 39 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 14.400
Low
29
Averages
34.38
High
39
Current: 14.400
Low
29
Averages
34.38
High
39
TD Cowen
Stacy Ku
Buy
maintain
$30 -> $35
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
TD Cowen
Stacy Ku
Price Target
$30 -> $35
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Stacy Ku raised the firm's price target on KalVista to $35 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results.
Citizens
Outperform
maintain
$28 -> $29
2026-01-09
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$28 -> $29
2026-01-09
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Citizens raised the firm's price target on KalVista to $29 from $28 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Ekterly posted a strong Q4 launch with $35M in revenue, well above expectations, driven by robust start forms and refills, though some holiday-related seasonality was evident, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While early performance implies an annualized run-rate above 2026 consensus, confirmation of sustained demand will hinge on a rebound in start forms in 1Q26, with refills expected to remain the primary revenue driver, the firm says.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for KALV
