Should I Buy KALU? KALU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

138.510

1 Day change

5.72%

52 Week Range

143.020

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: short-term odds skew negative (pattern-based model points to ~-5.46% over the next week) while momentum is stretched (RSI6 > 70).
Trend is still bullish structurally (SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA200, MACD expanding), but the stock is pulling back pre-market (-3.41%) and is heading into an earnings catalyst (after hours 2026-02-23), which can amplify downside if expectations are high.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
If already owned: hold through the dip only if you can tolerate an earnings-driven swing; if looking to initiate: skip buying now and reassess after price either (1) reclaims resistance near ~139.4 or (2) tests/supports around ~130.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish overall (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.305 and expanding → bullish momentum still present.
Overbought/near-term risk: RSI_6 at 71.353 suggests stretched/overbought conditions, raising pullback risk.
Key levels:
- Pivot/support area: ~130.17 (important near-term line in the sand)
- Resistance: R1 ~139.42 (overhead supply), then R2 ~145.12
- Deeper supports: S1 ~120.93, S2 ~115.23
Near-term bias: Despite bullish trend, the combination of overbought RSI + pre-market weakness argues against chasing right now.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.15 is very call-heavy → bullish positioning.
Flow today: Options volume is entirely calls (put volume 0; put/call volume ratio 0.0), reinforcing bullish sentiment, but volume is small (47 contracts).
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.92 with IV percentile ~90.84 → options are pricing elevated movement (consistent with the upcoming earnings catalyst). Elevated IV often implies the market expects a sharp move; it does not guarantee direction.
Takeaway: Options market is bullishly positioned, but pricing implies higher event risk; this supports “not a clean entry” for an impatient buyer right before earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings event (2026-02-23 after hours) could be a positive catalyst if results/forward commentary beat expectations.
- Technical structure remains bullish (moving averages stacked upward, MACD expanding).
- Options positioning is strongly call-leaning (very low put/call OI ratio), suggesting optimistic sentiment.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Pre-market weakness (-3.41%) suggests near-term selling pressure.
- RSI6 > 70 indicates the stock is stretched; pullbacks are more likely from these levels.
- Pattern-based forward-looking stats provided: ~70% chance of -1.79% next day and ~-5.46% next week.
- Elevated IV into earnings implies larger-than-usual price swing risk; a miss or weak guidance can trigger a fast drop.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $843.5M (+12.81% YoY)
- Net Income: $39.5M (+229.17% YoY)
- EPS: $2.38 (+226.03% YoY)
- Gross Margin: 9.8% (+56.30% YoY)
Read-through: Strong YoY acceleration in profitability and margins (quality of growth improved), which supports the longer-term bullish trend; however, the near-term entry timing is less attractive right ahead of earnings with momentum already extended.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided in the dataset.
Wall Street pros/cons view cannot be reliably summarized from the supplied inputs; based on available data only, the “pro” case is strong recent financial momentum, while the “con” case is elevated near-term expectations/earnings-event risk and an overbought technical setup.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast KALU stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KALU is 106.5 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 108 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 131.010

Low

105

Averages

106.5

High

108

Current: 131.010

Low

105

Averages

106.5

High

108

JPMorgan

Neutral

maintain

$82 -> $105

AI Analysis

2025-10-28

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$82 -> $105

AI Analysis

2025-10-28

maintain

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Kaiser Aluminum to $105 from $82 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's' model post the Q3 report.

Benchmark

Josh Sullivan

Strong Buy

Maintains

$100 → $74

2025-04-21

Reason

Benchmark

Josh Sullivan

Price Target

$100 → $74

2025-04-21

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

Benchmark lowered the firm's price target on Kaiser Aluminum to $74 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Aerospace OEM-exposed names such as Kaiser are broadly expected to deliver solid Q1 results, with the second half expected to be driven by ramping OEM production rates, the analyst tells investors in a preview. Tariffs are driving near-term uncertainty and consumer softness is raising recessions concerns, but the long-term aerospace replacement cycle remains, the analyst added.

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KALU Should I Buy

KALU Should I Buy

Should You Buy Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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