Buy now: the trend setup is bullish (stacked moving averages) and price is sitting right at the pivot (~117.6), which is a reasonable “don’t-wait” entry area.
Tactical upside levels: near-term targets are R1 121.97 then R2 124.69; if those break, analyst upside (e.g., Barclays $137) becomes more relevant.
Sentiment supports a buy: hedge funds are aggressively accumulating (+1444.89% QoQ buying), and options positioning skews slightly bullish (put/call ratios < 1).
Main near-term risk is earnings (2026-02-18 after hours) + elevated implied volatility; however, for an impatient buyer, the current level is still a solid entry rather than waiting for a “perfect” pullback.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating a sustained uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram above 0 (0.0238) but positively contracting → upside momentum is still positive, though cooling.
RSI (6): 52.3 (neutral) → not overbought, leaving room for continuation.
Key levels:
Pivot: 117.573 (price 117.48 is essentially at pivot)
Support: S1 113.176, S2 110.46
Resistance: R1 121.97, R2 124.686
Pattern-based probabilities (similar candlesticks): next day modestly positive bias, but next week slightly negative; this favors a tactical buy with defined levels rather than expecting a straight-line rally.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call 0.8 and volume put/call 0.58 → overall call-leaning / mildly bullish sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV 49.29 vs historical vol 27.13; IV percentile 78.88 → market is pricing elevated event risk (earnings on 2026-02-18 likely a driver).
Activity: Today’s option volume is 30, below recent averages (5D avg 141.6; 10D avg 203.1) → sentiment read is more from positioning than heavy fresh flow today.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Hedge fund accumulation: buying up 1444.89% QoQ is a strong institutional tailwind.
Analyst tone improving: recent upgrades/raised targets (Barclays Overweight, Evercore upgrade) support continued re-rating.
Technical trend strength: bullish moving-average stack suggests dips are being bought.
Potential earnings catalyst (2026-02-18): if results/guide come in cleaner than the weak YoY comps imply, the stock can push through 122–125 resistance quickly.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Momentum cooling: MACD is still positive but contracting; a failed hold above ~117 could invite a pullback toward 113.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $1.396B, -34.58% YoY
Net Income: $65M, -113.54% YoY
EPS: 0.92, -114.44% YoY
Growth takeaway: reported YoY growth trends are decisively negative in the latest quarter; the bull case relies more on capital/valuation/positioning and a potential earnings normalization than on current headline growth momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: generally improving/constructive over the last ~2 months with multiple target raises and one notable upgrade.
Key changes:
2026-01-08: Barclays Overweight, PT raised $128 → $137 (cautiously optimistic on life insurers)
2026-01-06: Evercore ISI upgraded to In Line (from Underperform), PT $110 → $118
2025-12-15: Morgan Stanley Equal Weight, PT $101 → $105
2025-11-11: KBW Market Perform, PT $110 → $115
Wall Street pros: improving targets, recognition of capital strength/cash flow, and upside if tail-risk reduction materializes.
Wall Street cons: acknowledges above-average tail risk tied to VA guarantees/hedging complexity; some firms remain neutral (Equal Weight / Market Perform).
Influential/political trading: no recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast JXN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JXN is 115 USD with a low forecast of 100 USD and a high forecast of 137 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JXN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JXN is 115 USD with a low forecast of 100 USD and a high forecast of 137 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 116.160
Low
100
Averages
115
High
137
Current: 116.160
Low
100
Averages
115
High
137
Barclays
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
$128 -> $137
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$128 -> $137
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Jackson Financial to $137 from $128 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is "cautiously optimistic" on life insurers heading into 2026, saying capital strength, cash flow, and consolidation offset headwinds like spread compression and technology spend. Barclays adjusted ratings and price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.
Evercore ISI
Underperform -> In Line
upgrade
$110 -> $118
2026-01-06
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$110 -> $118
2026-01-06
upgrade
Underperform -> In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI upgraded Jackson Financial to In Line from Underperform with a price target of $118, up from $110. The company carries above-average tail risk due to short-term hedges supporting long-duration VA guarantees, but this is offset by an industry-low multiple, solid capital outside the VA captive, an expected manageable Q4 balance sheet charge, and potential tail-risk reduction from a living benefits risk transfer, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for JXN
