Not a good buy right now: price (~6.95 pre-market) is pressing the R1 resistance (6.956) after a bullish run-up, which is a poor entry for an impatient buyer.
Momentum is positive (bullish MAs + expanding MACD), but RSI(6)=69.38 is near overbought—risk/reward skews toward a pullback rather than an immediate breakout.
Options positioning is aggressively call-skewed (OI put/call 0.2; put volume essentially zero), which is bullish but also suggests the “easy” upside may be crowded.
Fundamentals are weak (2025/Q3 revenue down ~9.8% YoY and net income/EPS near break-even-to-loss), and next earnings (Q4/Dec 2025) on 2026-03-02 adds event risk.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.00973) and expanding → bullish momentum building.
Overbought check: RSI_6 = 69.38 (near overbought threshold), implying upside may be limited near-term.
Key levels: Pivot 6.757; Resistance R1 6.956 (price is essentially at this level), R2 7.078; Support S1 6.558, S2 6.436.
Pattern-based forward odds (model on similar candles): ~50% chance of -0.45% next day, -3.43% next week (tilts to near-term weakness after the run).
Setup quality today: buying into R1 with near-overbought RSI is not an optimal entry despite the uptrend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Strongly bullish skew (put/call OI = 0.2; put volume = 0 vs call volume = 180).
Activity: Today’s option volume (180) is ~1058% of the 30-day average → unusually high interest, dominated by calls.
Volatility: 30D IV ~55.18 vs historical vol ~34.86 (options imply bigger moves than recent realized).
IV positioning: IV percentile 9.56 / IV rank 14.75 → IV is low relative to its own history (despite being above realized), which can be supportive for call-buying interest.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning bullish, but the extreme call-skew can also mean crowded upside positioning near resistance.
Net income: -0.948M, -97.74% YoY (profitability deterioration; near break-even-to-loss).
EPS: -0.02, -98.20% YoY.
Overall: growth trend is negative and does not currently justify chasing the stock into resistance without a clear catalyst or proprietary buy signal.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest action: Compass Point (2025-12-16) downgraded to Neutral from Buy, while raising PT to $7 (from $6.50).
Interpretation: Wall Street view is more cautious on upside (downgrade), even though fair value nudged slightly higher.
Pros (Street perspective): PT near current price suggests limited downside if execution stabilizes.
Cons (Street perspective): downgrade implies expected returns are less compelling now—consistent with a “near resistance / not a great entry” setup.
Wall Street analysts forecast JRVR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JRVR is 6.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JRVR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JRVR is 6.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 6.940
Low
6
Averages
6.5
High
7
Current: 6.940
Low
6
Averages
6.5
High
7
Compass Point
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$7
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
Compass Point
Price Target
$7
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
Compass Point downgraded James River Group to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $7, up from $6.50.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Meyer Shields
Hold
Maintains
$6 → $5
2025-03-13
Reason
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Meyer Shields
Price Target
$6 → $5
2025-03-13
Maintains
Hold
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on James River Group to $5 from $6 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm assumes slower gross written premium growth and modest but persistent reserve strengthening, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for JRVR
