Should I Buy JPM? JPM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

322.400

1 Day change

3.95%

52 Week Range

337.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended/overbought and sitting right under a key resistance zone (~315.85–321.23).
Despite a bullish intermediate trend (MACD positive) and supportive longer-term fundamentals, near-term risk/reward is unfavorable due to elevated RSI, heavy insider selling, and weak short-horizon pattern odds.
Best stance today: Hold / avoid chasing; only becomes attractive on a pullback closer to the ~307 pivot (or below) with stabilization.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (1.141) and expanding → trend strength remains bullish.
Overbought signal: RSI(6)=74.234 → stretched/overbought in the very near term, increasing pullback risk.
Moving averages: converging MAs → trend is intact but losing directional clarity; often precedes a pause or mean reversion.
Levels that matter: Pivot 307.14 (better dip-entry area); Resistance R1 315.847 (currently pressing), R2 321.227 (next upside cap). Supports S1 298.432, S2 293.052.
Pattern-based forward odds (from similar candlesticks): 60% chance of -2.35% next day, -11.62% next week, -4.08% next month → statistically unfavorable near-term.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: Entry signal triggered on 2026-01-29; price is +3.08% since. With price now near resistance and RSI elevated, the current spot looks more like a late entry than a fresh high-conviction buy.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 1.03 → slightly defensive/neutral positioning (puts marginally exceed calls on OI).
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 0.52 → more call volume than put volume (near-term upside speculation).
Volatility: 30D IV 25.64 vs HV 24.36, IV percentile 70 → options are relatively expensive vs typical levels; market is pricing higher-than-usual uncertainty.
Activity: today’s volume is elevated vs 30D avg (41.51) and OI is heavy (619,850) → meaningful attention, but sentiment is mixed (defensive OI, bullish daily flow).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Wall Street upside cases still exist: multiple bullish/high targets (e.g., TD Cowen $400 Buy; Barclays $391 Overweight) point to confidence in JPM’s franchise strength and 2026 tailwinds (NIM healing, capital return, IB fees).
- Congress trading (last 90 days): 8 purchases, 0 sales; $5.1M–$11.5M range (median ~$8.3M) → influential-buying signal is notably positive.
- Franchise narrative remains strong in analyst commentary: “best-in-class franchise,” market share gains, margin/return expansion potential.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are Selling, with selling amount up 3783.09% over the last month → strong internal distribution signal (near-term bearish).
- Event/news tone: CEO Jamie Dimon’s special options grant (headline catalyst) can attract negative optics/governance chatter even if meant for retention.
- Technical timing: price is pressing resistance with an overbought RSI → higher probability of near-term pullback than immediate clean breakout.
- Macro sensitivity: broad market is red pre-market (S&P -0.54%); banks can amplify risk-off moves.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $45.798B, +7.08% YoY → top-line growth remains solid.
Profitability: Net income $12.689B, -7.17% YoY and EPS 4.63, -3.74% YoY → earnings growth lagged revenue, suggesting margin/credit/expense pressure in the quarter.
Overall: fundamentals are mixed (good revenue growth, softer bottom line), which fits a “great franchise, but not a perfect near-term setup at an extended price.”

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: targets mostly raised into 2026, but ratings are mixed (upgrades/downgrades around a broadly constructive outlook).
Bullish/pro view: TD Cowen (Buy, $400) and Barclays (Overweight, $391) argue for durable 2026 tailwinds (repricing, NIM healing, fees, capital return) and JPM gaining share.
Neutral/cautious view: Truist (Hold ~$331), HSBC (Hold $245), Wolfe downgrade to Peer Perform; Baird upgrade to Neutral but explicitly says risk/reward is “more reasonable but not attractive for new money.”
Bottom line from the Street: pros like the franchise quality and 2026 setup, cons focus on valuation/entry timing and less compelling risk/reward after the run.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast JPM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JPM is 341.38 USD with a low forecast of 260 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 310.160

Low

260

Averages

341.38

High

400

Current: 310.160

Low

260

Averages

341.38

High

400

HSBC

Reduce

Hold

upgrade

$319

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

HSBC

Price Target

$319

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

upgrade

Reduce

Hold

Reason

HSBC upgraded JPMorgan to Hold from Reduce with a $319 price target.

Baird

David George

Underperform -> Neutral

upgrade

$280

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Baird

David George

Price Target

$280

2026-02-03

New

upgrade

Underperform -> Neutral

Reason

Baird analyst David George upgraded JPMorgan to Neutral from Underperform with an unchanged price target of $280. Following the recent underperformance, the stock's risk/reward is "more reasonable but not attractive for new money," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Baird now finds it difficult to make the short case for "a best-in-class franchise." It does not recommend adding to short positions at current prices. JPMorgan is "very well-positioned to take market share throughout its businesses while expanding margins and returns," contends Baird.

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JPM Should I Buy

JPM Should I Buy

Should You Buy JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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