Should I Buy JEF? JEF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

58.940

1 Day change

4.30%

52 Week Range

76.670

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Not a good buy right now (pre-market ~$58.76). The chart is still in a short-term downswing (MACD negative and worsening) and options flow is decisively defensive/bearish.
Price is sitting just above key support (~58.02). With no proprietary buy signal and heavy put activity, odds favor choppy-to-lower action before a cleaner rebound.
Wall Street analysts are constructive longer-term (upgrades/raised targets), but today’s positioning/sentiment doesn’t support an impatient “buy-now” entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.577 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~31.4 → near short-term oversold territory, but not yet showing a confirmed reversal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → potential stabilization, but not a clear turn up yet.
Key levels:
- Support: S1 58.018, then S2 56.382
- Resistance/Pivot: Pivot 60.665, then R1 63.312
Near-term probability (pattern-based): 70% chance of ** -0.58% next day**, but +0.94% next week and +7.37% next month → short-term pressure with better medium-term upside if support holds.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put open interest exceeds calls (Put/Call OI 1.71) → cautious/bearish positioning.
Flow (today): Put/Call volume ratio 16.73 (puts 1355 vs calls 81) → very bearish/hedging-heavy tape today.
Volatility: 30D IV 41.79 vs historical vol 33.44 → options pricing in elevated movement.
Activity spike: Today’s volume is ~69.8x 30D average and OI build is elevated → sentiment/positioning is active and defensive rather than bullish.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst upgrades/raised targets (Dec 2025) point to improving investment-banking cycle expectations (M&A/underwriting rebound) and partnership upside (SMBC).
- News flow referencing Berkshire interest/financial-stock focus keeps attention on the sector and can support sentiment.
- If 58 support holds, the setup can transition into a mean-reversion bounce toward the 60.7 pivot.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event headline risk: First Brands-related legal news (fraud allegations, not guilty plea) can keep an overhang on sentiment.
- Options market is screaming defense (extreme put volume dominance) → increases risk of near-term downside or continued volatility.
- Technical momentum remains bearish (MACD worsening); if 58.02 breaks, next downside magnet is 56.38.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $2.82B, +2.92% YoY (modest growth).
Net income: $190.9M, -7.59% YoY (profit pressure).
EPS: $0.85, -8.60% YoY (earnings down YoY).
Gross margin: 64.26%, +3.73% YoY (margin improved even as earnings fell) → mixed quarter: better margin profile, but weaker bottom-line growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Ratings/targets have turned more bullish recently (Dec 2025).
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-08): Upgrade to Overweight, PT $78 (from $74), citing M&A cycle improving and concerns around First Brands seen as overblown.
UBS (2025-12-11): Initiated/assumed with Buy, PT $76, highlighting favorable sector fundamentals and margin expansion potential.
Oppenheimer (2025-12-11): Outperform, PT $97 (from $81), expecting strong 2026–2027 trajectory; views M&A/underwriting rebound as catalysts.
Wall Street pros: improving deal-cycle tailwinds, partnership leverage, upside to targets.
Wall Street cons: near-term earnings noise (impairment assumptions) and First Brands headline/credit overhang.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast JEF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JEF is 72.79 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 97 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 56.510

Low

Averages

72.79

High

Current: 56.510

Low

Averages

72.79

High

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$81 -> $97

AI Analysis

2025-12-11

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$81 -> $97

AI Analysis

2025-12-11

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Jefferies Financial to $97 from $81 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the fiscal Q4 report. The firm believes the company's "strong growth trajectory remains in place" for 2026 and 2027. Opco assumes Jefferies will completely impair its $113M investment in the Point Bonita Funds, which takes down its earnings per share estimate for the quarter to 80c. It sees the rebound in mergers and underwriting activity as catalysts for the stock.

UBS

Michael Brown

initiated

$76

2025-12-11

Reason

UBS

Michael Brown

Price Target

$76

2025-12-11

initiated

Reason

UBS analyst Michael Brown assumed coverage of Jefferies Financial with a Buy rating and $76 price target, noting strong sector fundamentals across 20 U.S. asset managers and brokers despite more mixed views on valuations and consensus expectations.The outlook favors undervalued growth, disciplined capital allocation, and firms positioned for margin expansion, while secular tailwinds support wealth brokers and independent investment banks whose robust earnings growth appears partly priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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JEF Should I Buy

JEF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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