Activity spike: Today’s volume ~14,669 vs 30D average (290%+) → event-driven trading likely tied to earnings/guidance.
Volatility: IV 30D ~27.97 vs HV ~29.22 (IV slightly below realized); IV percentile ~51.8 → options pricing not “panic-high,” but flow suggests hedging after the move.
Guidance raised: full-year adjusted EPS outlook raised to ~4.70 (per news summary).
Demand strength: nearly 40% order growth and record backlog (~$18B) support revenue visibility.
Operating leverage: EBIT margin expansion to ~12.4% (per news summary) reinforces quality of the beat.
Macro narrative support: AI/data-center and broader HVAC “supercycle” tailwinds referenced by analysts.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
after the gap-up.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2026/Q1): EPS up +34.92% YoY to 0.85; net income up +25.06% YoY to ~$524M (profitability trend strong).
Reported revenue in the provided snapshot shows a sharp YoY decline (-64.89% to $1.905B), which conflicts with the news summary revenue figure ($5.797B). Net takeaway from the combined dataset: profitability and outlook improved materially, while reported revenue figures are inconsistent across sources.
Margin: provided gross margin figure is highly anomalous (negative), so it’s not reliable for decisioning; the news summary’s EBIT margin expansion to ~12.4% is the more coherent directional signal.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent tone improved: Melius upgraded JCI to Buy (2026-01-07) with a $148 target, citing a broader applied HVAC “supercycle” beyond just data centers.
Barclays remains more neutral: reiterated Equal Weight while raising targets ($119→$125 on 2026-01-07; then $125→$136 on 2026-02-05) after Q1 results.
Wall Street pros: strong order growth/backlog, raised outlook, margin expansion, and secular HVAC demand tailwinds.
Wall Street cons: after the earnings pop, valuation/entry risk rises; neutral ratings indicate less conviction to chase at current levels despite higher targets.
Wall Street analysts forecast JCI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JCI is 128.78 USD with a low forecast of 119 USD and a high forecast of 142 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JCI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JCI is 128.78 USD with a low forecast of 119 USD and a high forecast of 142 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 132.520
Low
119
Averages
128.78
High
142
Current: 132.520
Low
119
Averages
128.78
High
142
JPMorgan
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
$138 -> $158
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$138 -> $158
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Johnson Controls to $158 from $138 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm says the company's fiscal Q1 report is another proof point of a "break out in performance" under Johnson's new CEO, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Citi
Neutral
maintain
$129 -> $139
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$129 -> $139
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Johnson Controls to $139 from $129 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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