Not a good buy right now: price is pressing into near-term resistance (~22.25) while options positioning is decisively bearish and fundamentals are deteriorating.
Risk/reward looks unfavorable ahead of earnings (2026-02-18 AH): recent quarter showed sharp profit/EPS compression, and sentiment into the event skews put-heavy.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0927) though contracting, implying downside momentum is easing but not flipped bullish.
RSI(6)=65.4: slightly warm but not an oversold bounce setup; more consistent with “near resistance” risk than “cheap entry.”
Moving averages are converging: suggests consolidation/range behavior rather than a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 21.33; resistance R1 22.245 (price is essentially at/just below it pre-market); if rejected, downside retest risk to S1 20.41.
Pattern-based forward odds: near-term bias leans mildly negative (next day) with better odds improving over a month (+5.05%), but that’s not ideal for an impatient entry right at resistance.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put-heavy open interest (1.38) and very put-heavy volume (3.67) = bearish near-term positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV 70.73 vs HV 62.87 → options pricing implies elevated uncertainty; IV rank 14.09 / percentile 41.83 suggests IV is not extreme versus its own history, but still high in absolute terms.
Flow/participation: today’s option volume ~98% of 30D average (not a “panic spike,” but persistent put demand is notable).
IV trend: IV is below 5D/10D averages (70.73 vs 78.21/83.69), implying recent volatility expectations have cooled, but positioning remains defensive.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Near-term product/news tone is positive: Del Taco seasonal seafood menu expansion and a “Best Fast Food Restaurant” award headline.
Some analysts expect restaurant sector setup to improve in 2026 (stimulus/easier comps), which could lift multiples if results stabilize.
Technical setup could improve if price decisively clears ~22.25 and holds above it (would reduce immediate rejection risk).
Overall: the quarter shows weakening growth and significant earnings compression, which undermines a “buy immediately” thesis.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: many firms raised price targets in early Jan, but kept Neutral/Hold/Equal Weight stances; Goldman remains Sell.
Notable calls:
Goldman Sachs (2026-01-28): PT to $17 (from $15), Sell.
UBS (2026-01-06): PT to $21, Neutral.
Barclays (2026-01-07): PT to $20, Equal Weight.
Truist (2026-01-08): PT to $18, Hold.
Mizuho (2026-01-09): PT to $19, Neutral.
RBC (2025-12-09): PT to $25, Outperform (bull outlier).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: brand/menu innovation, potential unit growth, digital initiatives (RBC bullish angle).
Cons: sector competition/price war concerns, softer consumer exposure, and JACK’s recent earnings miss/pressure leading to cautious Neutral/Sell positioning.
Influential/political trading: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders reported as neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast JACK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JACK is 19.35 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JACK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JACK is 19.35 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
11 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 22.010
Low
15
Averages
19.35
High
25
Current: 22.010
Low
15
Averages
19.35
High
25
Citi
Neutral
maintain
$16 -> $23
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$16 -> $23
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Jack in the Box to $23 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Goldman Sachs
Sell
maintain
$15 -> $17
2026-01-28
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$15 -> $17
2026-01-28
maintain
Sell
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Jack in the Box to $17 from $15 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares.
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