Should I Buy IVR? IVR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.660

1 Day change

-1.81%

52 Week Range

9.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price (~8.85–8.89 pre-market) is sitting near the pivot (8.857) with only modest upside to nearby resistance (9.084/9.225) and no proprietary buy signals.
Risk/reward is not compelling at this moment: technicals are neutral-to-slightly-bearish (MACD < 0) while the stock is already close to latest reported book value ($8.72), limiting immediate upside.
Options sentiment is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but without confirmation from price trend/momentum, it’s not enough to justify an immediate buy.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Pre-market price ~8.85 is essentially on the pivot (8.857): market is indecisive at a key level.
MACD histogram -0.0469 (below 0) and negatively contracting: downside momentum is easing, but trend is not bullish yet.
RSI(6) ~50.15: neutral, no clear overbought/oversold edge.
Moving averages converging: consolidation/range behavior rather than a clean trend.
Key levels: Support S1 8.63 (then S2 8.489). Resistance R1 9.084 (then R2 9.225). For an immediate long to work, price needs to clear and hold above ~9.08.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning skew is bullish: put/call open interest ratio 0.16 (calls dominate; call OI 12,899 vs put OI 2,095).
Volume skew also bullish: put/call volume ratio 0.2 (calls favored; call vol 59 vs put vol 12).
Activity vs typical is elevated: today’s volume is ~6.81x the 30-day average, suggesting fresh attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~23.32 vs HV ~27.61; IV percentile ~31 and IV rank ~7.5 (options not priced for extreme moves).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Dividend increased to $0.36/share (positive for income-focused demand).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technicals are not confirming an upside breakout (MACD still negative; price pinned around pivot).
- Earnings power trend is not clean: EPS and net income show large YoY declines in the snapshot (can weigh on sentiment even if driven by mREIT mark-to-market dynamics).
- Analyst stance is mixed, including an Underperform rating from BofA (even after a target raise).
- No supportive “follow-the-money” signal: hedge funds and insiders are neutral; no notable recent congress trading data.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $112.702M, +58.84% YoY (strong top-line improvement).
Net income: $48.243M, -981.63% YoY (sharp decline YoY).
EPS: 0.68, -855.56% YoY (sharp decline YoY).
Gross margin: 47.25, +526.66% YoY (improved margin profile).
Interpretation: the quarter shows improving revenue/margins, but bottom-line volatility remains high (typical for mortgage REIT accounting/portfolio marks), which reduces confidence for an immediate “buy now” call.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend is mixed:
- 2025-12-15: Compass Point initiated Buy, PT $9.
- 2026-01-25: BofA raised PT to $8.25 (from $7.50) but kept Underperform.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
- Pros: improving book value estimates; supportive agency MBS macro conditions; dividend increase.
- Cons: at least one major firm remains bearish (Underperform), implying concerns about sustainability/return outlook and/or valuation vs risk.
Net takeaway: Street is split; targets cluster around the current price area (~$8.25–$9), implying limited immediate upside unless IVR breaks above resistance and the macro tailwinds persist.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast IVR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IVR is 9 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 8.820

Low

Averages

High

Current: 8.820

Low

Averages

High

BofA

Underperform

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-25

Reason

BofA

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-25

maintain

Underperform

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Invesco Mortgage to $8.25 from $7.50 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm cites higher book value estimates for the target increase. The agency mortgage backed securities macro environment was favorable in Q4 as interest rate volatility declined and the yield curve steepened, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Compass Point

Jason Stewart

Buy

initiated

2025-12-15

Reason

Compass Point

Jason Stewart

Price Target

2025-12-15

initiated

Buy

Reason

Compass Point analyst Jason Stewart initiated coverage of Invesco Mortgage with a Buy rating and $9 price target.

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IVR Should I Buy

IVR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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