Should I Buy ITW? ITW 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

293.570

1 Day change

1.83%

52 Week Range

294.790

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now at ~$288.8: momentum is strong but the stock is technically stretched (RSI ~90) and already trading above most updated Street price targets.
Upside case exists (earnings beat + improving industrial short-cycle demand), but near-term reward/risk is less attractive for an impatient entry given overbought conditions and hedge-fund selling.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive, expanding MACD histogram (+2.5), indicating strong upward momentum.
Overbought: RSI_6 ~89.9 signals the move is extended; chasing here increases odds of a near-term pullback/consolidation.
Key levels: Pivot ~271.9; R1 ~285.9 (already above); next resistance R2 ~294.6 (near-term upside ceiling). Supports at ~271.9 then ~257.9.
Pattern-based odds provided: modest near-term upside bias (next week +11.5% probability signal) but slightly negative tilt over the next month (-0.25% expectation), consistent with “extended rally then cool-off.”

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.25; Volume PCR 0.1) → strongly bullish/skewed to calls.
Activity: Today’s options volume is extremely elevated vs 30-day average (~~420%); open interest also elevated (~~145% vs avg) → traders are actively expressing views post-earnings.
Volatility: Implied vol (30d ~~14.8) is far below historical vol (~~27.1) and IV percentile/rank at 0 → options are priced “cheap,” consistent with calm/optimistic expectations after the print.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Several firms raised price targets after earnings (broad acknowledgment of improving trends).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

is above many freshly raised targets (Baird $278, UBS $285, Citi $284, Truist $280), implying limited near-term upside per most of the Street.
and Wells Fargo remains Underweight (PT $270), highlighting concerns around parts of consumer-exposed segments and limited upside.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Growth: Revenue $4.093B (+4.09% YoY); Net Income $790M (+5.33% YoY); EPS $2.72 (+7.09% YoY) → steady acceleration and operating leverage.
Profitability: Gross margin 43.71% (+1.94% YoY) → improving efficiency/mix.
Full-year context (from news): 2025 revenue ~$16B and GAAP EPS $10.49, exceeding prior guidance → fundamentally solid, but much of this looks priced in at current levels.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: A wave of price-target increases after Q4, but ratings are mostly Neutral/Hold; only JPMorgan stands out as Overweight.
Updated targets (selected): Baird $278 (Neutral), UBS $285 (Neutral), Citi $284 (Neutral), Truist $280 (Hold), JPMorgan $310 (Overweight), Wells Fargo $270 (Underweight), Goldman $253 (Sell).
Wall Street “pros” view: high-quality operator, improving growth signals, guidance viewed as potentially conservative (JPM).
Wall Street “cons” view: upside is harder to justify at the current multiple/price; some end-market exposure still challenged; several firms explicitly struggle to find incremental upside from here.
Influential trading check: No recent Congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no notable recent trend.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ITW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITW is 258.13 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 275 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

3 Sell

Hold

Current: 288.290

Low

230

Averages

258.13

High

275

Current: 288.290

Low

230

Averages

258.13

High

275

Baird

Mircea Dobre

Neutral

maintain

$265 -> $278

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Baird

Mircea Dobre

Price Target

$265 -> $278

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Baird analyst Mircea Dobre raised the firm's price target on Illinois Tool Works to $278 from $265 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results where it is struggling to find upside for now.

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$255 -> $285

2026-02-04

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$255 -> $285

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Illinois Tool Works to $285 from $255 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following the Q4 earnings report.

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ITW Should I Buy

ITW Should I Buy

Should You Buy Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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