Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price (8.54 pre-market) is sitting at/just below the key pivot (8.55) with no proprietary buy signal, while an earnings catalyst is imminent.
Technically the trend is constructive, but momentum is not accelerating (MACD histogram positive but contracting; RSI neutral), which reduces the edge for an immediate chase.
Options sentiment is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but implied volatility is extremely elevated, suggesting the market is pricing a large move—this makes timing less favorable ahead of the catalyst.
Net view: Hold / wait for post-earnings direction, then buy on a clean break above 8.995 (R1) or a dip toward 8.105 (S1) that holds.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at 0.0528 is above zero (bullish), but positively contracting, implying upside momentum is slowing rather than strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 = 52.04 (neutral), consistent with consolidation rather than a strong breakout setup.
Key levels: Pivot 8.55 is immediate decision point; resistance at 8.995 (R1) then 9.27 (R2); support at 8.105 (S1) then 7.83 (S2).
Pattern-based forward stats (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of -0.36% next day, but +7.84% next week and +12.85% next month—supports a bullish medium-term bias, not necessarily a same-day entry edge.
Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI 0.34; volume 0.17) are strongly call-skewed, typically a bullish positioning signal.
Volatility: 30D IV 143.1 vs historical volatility 34.74, with IV percentile 85 (elevated) and IV rank ~59—market is pricing a large move.
Flow/participation: Today’s volume 454 vs 30D avg participation ~83.3 (below typical), while today’s open interest (10,890) is far above its 30D average baseline (today_vs_open_interest_avg_30_day 287.34) suggesting heavier existing positioning than fresh daily volume.
Practical read: bullish skew, but the very high IV aligns with event-driven uncertainty and can distort near-term signals.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
supports trend continuation if 8.995 (R
breaks.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings risk is imminent, and expectations have weakened on revenue: revenue estimate saw four downward revisions in the last three months.
Mixed estimate direction: only one upward and one downward EPS revision recently—no clear consensus improvement.
Analyst target overhang: JPMorgan PT is $8 while the stock is ~8.54 pre-market, implying limited upside vs that cited target.
Momentum moderation: MACD is still positive but contracting, consistent with a stall near the pivot rather than a clean acceleration setup.
Overall: fundamentals (as of 2025/Q3) support a bullish medium-term case, but the next earnings catalyst is the key near-term driver.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest notable change: (2025-11-25) JPMorgan raised price target to $8 from $7 and maintained Overweight.
Recent trend summary: positive direction on that single visible update (PT raised; rating stays bullish).
Wall Street pros view: Overweight rating signals confidence in the story and execution.
Wall Street cons view: The $8 target sits below the current pre-market price (~8.54), which can cap perceived upside and reduces “easy” upside from here.
Ownership/trading color: Hedge funds neutral (no significant last-quarter trend); insiders neutral (no significant last-month trend).
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transactions provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast ITUB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITUB is 8 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ITUB stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITUB is 8 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.680
Low
8
Averages
8
High
8
Current: 8.680
Low
8
Averages
8
High
8
JPMorgan
Domingos Falavina
maintain
$7 -> $8
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
Reason
JPMorgan
Domingos Falavina
Price Target
$7 -> $8
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
maintain
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Domingos Falavina raised the firm's price target on Itau Unibanco to $8 from $7 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.
UBS
Buy -> Neutral
downgrade
2025-07-10
Reason
UBS
Price Target
2025-07-10
downgrade
Buy -> Neutral
Reason
UBS downgraded Itau Unibanco to Neutral from Buy with a price target of R$40, up from R$37. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade with the bank's growth now reflected in the shares.
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