Should I Buy ITRI? ITRI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Itron Inc (ITRI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

104.050

1 Day change

4.51%

52 Week Range

142.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~102.51) with RSI near overbought, while short-term pattern stats skew slightly negative.
Options are pricing very high near-term uncertainty (IV percentile ~98) ahead of earnings (2026-02-17 pre-market), which can work against a “buy now” decision if you don’t want to wait for a cleaner setup.
Wall Street remains broadly constructive (Buy/Outperform), but price targets were cut recently, signaling tempered near-term upside expectations.
Net: I would NOT chase at ~$101.9 pre-market; I’d stay on hold rather than buy today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.365) and expanding → bullish momentum is present.
RSI: RSI(6) ~69.7 → close to overbought; upside may be limited near-term without consolidation.
Moving averages: converging MAs → indecision/transition phase rather than a clean trending tape.
Levels: Pivot ~100.11 (key line in the sand). Resistance R1 ~102.51 then R2 ~104.00; Support S1 ~97.70 then S2 ~96.21.
Price context: pre-market ~$101.94 is sitting just below R1, a spot that often leads to stall-outs/pullbacks unless volume confirms a breakout.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open Interest Put/Call = 1.2 → slightly more puts than calls outstanding (mildly defensive sentiment).
Flow today: Volume Put/Call = 0.04 (puts 13 vs calls 290) → call-heavy trading flow (near-term bullish speculation).
Volatility: 30D IV ~75.38 vs historical vol ~22.54; IV percentile ~98.41 → options are extremely expensive, reflecting a big expected move (earnings upcoming).
Activity: today’s volume vs 30D avg ~147.8% → elevated interest, consistent with event-driven positioning.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- News/event: Wildfire mitigation project (Itron + Toumetis) in Southern California enhances real-time analytics adoption narrative for utilities.
- Margin trend: Gross margin improved materially in 2025/Q3 (36.99%, +11.18% YoY) → operating quality improving even with softer revenue.
- Analysts: Multiple firms remain constructive (Buy/Outperform) with targets still well above current price.
- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market) with EPS estimate ~2.19 could re-rate the stock if results/guide beat.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

→ higher risk of rejection/pullback than immediate clean breakout.
conflicts with call-heavy daily flow, implying uncertainty rather than a unanimous bullish setup.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $581.6M, -5.50% YoY → top-line contraction.
Net income: $65.6M, -15.84% YoY → profitability down YoY.
EPS: 1.41, -17.06% YoY → earnings growth negative.
Gross margin: 36.99%, +11.18% YoY → strong margin expansion is the clear bright spot.
Upcoming: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market); market is already pricing a large move (very high IV).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-27 (Oppenheimer): PT cut to $125 from $145, rating kept Outperform → still bullish, but expectations trimmed.
2026-01-05 (Johnson Rice): Upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, PT $130 → improved conviction.
2025-11-25 (Seaport): PT nudged down to $138 from $140, kept Buy → supportive stance despite dilution concerns.
Street view (pros): Belief in sustained power/utility capex and re-acceleration potential.
Street view (cons): Recent target cuts highlight nearer-term uncertainty and sensitivity to deal dilution / execution.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ITRI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITRI is 137.13 USD with a low forecast of 118 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 99.560

Low

118

Averages

137.13

High

150

Current: 99.560

Low

118

Averages

137.13

High

150

Oppenheimer

Noah Kaye

Outperform

downgrade

$145 -> $125

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

Oppenheimer

Noah Kaye

Price Target

$145 -> $125

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Noah Kaye lowered the firm's price target on Itron to $125 from $145 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the power technology group as part of a Q4 preview. While power prices are higher as overall power demand continues to grow, technology mix is starting to play a larger role in optimizing power costs with renewables mitigating price increases, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Johnson Rice

Accumulate -> Buy

upgrade

$130

2026-01-05

Reason

Johnson Rice

Price Target

$130

2026-01-05

upgrade

Accumulate -> Buy

Reason

Johnson Rice upgraded Itron to Buy from Accumulate with a $130 price target.

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ITRI Should I Buy

ITRI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Itron Inc (ITRI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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