Earnings are after-hours today (2026-02-05), and options are pricing extreme uncertainty (very high IV + heavy volume), which is unfavorable for an impatient “buy now” decision.
Congress trading over the last 90 days shows only sales (0 buys / 4 sells, large $ amounts), which is a notable negative sentiment tell.
Net: despite strong longer-term AI/HPC narrative (Microsoft deal), the near-term setup is skewed to further downside; avoid buying pre-earnings after a support break.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.927) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~29.6 → approaching oversold; can bounce, but oversold readings can persist in downswings.
Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 suggests the bigger-picture trend had been bullish, but the current move looks like a sharp pullback within that trend.
Key levels: Pivot 54.17 is far above current price (bearish context). Support S1 46.66 and S2 42.01: pre-market ~41.85 is effectively below S2, implying a potential “support failed” scenario. Upside resistance levels are distant (R1 61.69 / R2 66.34).
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern model implies downside bias: ~70% chance of -3.36% next day, -4.73% next week, -6.91% next month.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/tilt: Put/Call ratios below 1 (OI 0.78, Volume 0.59) → market is still more call-skewed than put-skewed (bullish/“dip-buying” bias), despite the selloff.
Volatility: 30D IV ~133.84 vs historical vol ~116.05; IV percentile ~96.81 and IV rank ~90.94 → extremely elevated implied volatility (market expecting a big move).
Flow intensity: Today’s option volume ~496k, ~164% of 30D average → unusually active ahead of earnings.
Implication for sentiment: Options market is pricing a large earnings move; call-skew suggests optimism remains, but the elevated IV also signals high uncertainty and risk of sharp downside if results/guidance disappoint.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
can fuel sharp reflex bounces if earnings/guidance land well.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with elevated uncertainty; pre-market weakness suggests nervous positioning.
Earnings quality: Net income $384.611M, down -843.89% YoY and EPS 1.06, down -492.59% YoY → profitability/EPS trends are highly unfavorable YoY (suggesting non-recurring items and/or significant cost/financing impacts).
Margins: Gross margin 30.96, down -225.39% YoY → margin compression/instability is a key watch item.
Takeaway: Clear growth story, but the latest reported quarter shows weakening earnings/margins versus last year—supporting the view that execution and scaling risks are still material.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Targets are wide and opinions are split, reflecting a high-upside AI/HPC narrative vs high execution/valuation risk.
Bull case on the Street: Citizens JMP Outperform $80 (AI/HPC power scarcity + pricing/supply-demand imbalance); Cantor Overweight $136 (Microsoft deal as cornerstone; expects more deals).
Mixed/neutral: Goldman Sachs Neutral $39 (hyper growth but valuation “relatively full,” growth beyond Microsoft less certain).
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros = transformational Microsoft partnership + AI data center demand + rapid revenue ramp potential. Cons = valuation/execution/financing risk, profitability instability, and uncertainty about growth beyond current flagship deals.
Wall Street analysts forecast IREN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IREN is 80.4 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 136 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IREN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IREN is 80.4 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 136 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 39.790
Low
39
Averages
80.4
High
136
Current: 39.790
Low
39
Averages
80.4
High
136
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
downgrade
$136 -> $82
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$136 -> $82
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the firm's price target on Iren to $82 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were both down quarter over quarter due to a decline in Bitcoin prices and a decline in operating hash rate, which was not unexpected given the company's transition of capacity away from Bitcoin mining and towards AI compute, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the after-hours move lower is a buying opportunity.
B. Riley
B. Riley
Buy
maintain
$74 -> $83
2026-02-06
New
Reason
B. Riley
B. Riley
Price Target
$74 -> $83
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
B. Riley raised the firm's price target on Iren to $83 from $74 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Iren reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $75.3M, below both internal and consensus estimates, while highlighting key milestones including securing $3.6B in GPU financing, adding 1.6 GW of power capacity at a new Oklahoma campus, and progressing Sweetwater 1 & 2 in Texas, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite the shortfall, the company targets $3.4B in annualized run-rate revenue by end of CY26, with expansion across Horizon 1-4 and B.C. sites positioning Iren as a de-risked, compelling long-term growth story, the firm says.
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