Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: short-term momentum is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and the stock is sitting just above key support (~19.49).
Upside exists (oversold-ish RSI and bullish call-leaning options), but near-term direction is likely dominated by the upcoming earnings event (2026-02-12 pre-market) with very elevated implied volatility.
Insider activity is a meaningful red flag (selling sharply higher recently), and the latest sell-side action was a notable downgrade with a reduced price target.
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term; MACD histogram is -0.178 (below zero) and negatively expanding, indicating downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at 35.28 is near oversold but still technically “neutral”; it supports a possible bounce attempt, but not a confirmed reversal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation after weakness rather than a clear uptrend.
Key levels: Current ~19.5 is sitting on S1 (19.492). A clean break below risks a move toward S2 (18.775). Overhead resistance is the pivot (20.654) then R1 (21.815).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/flow: Put-call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.2; volume PCR 0.35), implying bullish/“call-heavy” sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV is extremely high at 76.35 vs historical vol 48.5, and IV percentile is 96.81 (options are pricing a big move).
Activity: Today’s total volume (1451) is below the 30D average (today vs avg ~57%), so sentiment is bullish but not backed by unusually strong volume.
Read-through: Options market is positioned for upside, but the elevated IV suggests the market is paying up for event risk (earnings), making direction less reliable.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Technical: Price is right at first support (~19.49); a hold-and-reclaim of the pivot (20.
could flip momentum short-term.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
signals lower near-term confidence and “range-bound” expectations.
Margin: Gross margin 48.71%, down 1.30% YoY (a mild deterioration to monitor).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: On 2026-01-16, Morgan Stanley downgraded IRDM to Equal Weight from Overweight and cut PT to $24 (from $37).
Wall Street pros view (pros): Space/tech industry backdrop viewed as attractive into 2026; company has demonstrated strong EPS and net income growth.
Wall Street cons view (cons): Strategic pivot uncertainty expected to keep the stock range-bound; reduced conviction reflected in downgrade and lower PT.
Influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential figure trades were provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast IRDM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IRDM is 25.83 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IRDM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IRDM is 25.83 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 19.130
Low
16
Averages
25.83
High
37
Current: 19.130
Low
16
Averages
25.83
High
37
Morgan Stanley
Kristine Liwag
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$37 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Kristine Liwag
Price Target
$37 -> $24
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag downgraded Iridium to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $24, down from $37. The firm sees the space technology industry as attractive in 2026. The favorable trends that drove 2025 outperformance should carry into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, Morgan Stanley downgraded Iridium, expecting uncertainty in the early days of the company's strategic pivot to keep stock range-bound.
Clear Street
Hold
downgrade
$26 -> $21
2025-10-24
Reason
Clear Street
Price Target
$26 -> $21
2025-10-24
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Clear Street lowered the firm's price target on Iridium to $21 from $26 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm reduced the company's revenue growth estimates to reflect increased competition. The spectrum deals by Iridium's rivals are a concern, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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