Buy now (impatient entry): Price is extremely oversold (RSI-6 13) and sitting just above first support (24.80), which often sets up a fast mean-reversion bounce.
Wall Street skew is strongly positive: Recent initiations/raises cluster at $48–$55 (RBC still $46 after trimming), far above the current ~$25 area.
Options positioning is moderately bullish but expects volatility: Put/Call OI is low (0.63) and volume is active; implied vol is extremely elevated, signaling a big-move environment.
Trade-off: Trend is still bearish (negative MACD + bearish moving averages), so near-term chop/downside is possible, but the setup favors a rebound attempt from support.
Trend: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms the stock has been in a downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.638 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still present.
Oversold condition: RSI_6 ~12.99 = deeply oversold; bounce risk/reward improves when this stretched.
Levels: Pivot 28.48 is overhead resistance; near-term support S1 24.80 then S2 22.52.
Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply -0.8% next day / -1.28% next week, but +9.03% next month—consistent with a near-term base then rebound scenario.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/positioning: Put/Call Open Interest 0.63 = more calls than puts outstanding (tilts bullish).
Flow today: Option volume Put/Call 0.91 = close to balanced intraday sentiment (slightly call-leaning).
Activity: Today’s total options volume 9,983, about 122.6% of 30-day average = elevated attention.
Volatility pricing: 30D IV 88.45 vs historical vol 48.73 with IV percentile ~98 / IV rank ~97.7 = options are very expensive; market is pricing a large move (common into/around catalysts).
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
and ongoing NASCAR partnership can support awareness and demand generation.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical damage remains: Despite oversold RSI, the primary trend is still down (bearish MAs + weakening MACD).
Event risk into earnings: With IV extremely high, the stock is priced for a big move; disappointment can amplify downside.
No supportive ‘smart money’ signal: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral (no notable recent accumulation).
Politics/congress:No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days (no signal from that channel).
Gross margin:76.69%, slightly up YoY (+0.39) = profitability profile remains strong on a gross basis.
Bottom line: Net income $7.77M and EPS $0.01 both down YoY (reported as large declines), indicating profitability is not yet consistently scaling quarter-to-quarter even with strong revenue growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Predominantly bullish coverage and rising confidence following strong Q3 metrics; multiple firms initiated with Buy/Overweight and several raised price targets in December.
Wells Fargo: Overweight, PT raised to $52 (Dec 5, 2025)
BMO: Outperform, PT raised to $50 (Dec 5, 2025)
RBC: Outperform, PT trimmed to $46 from $50 (Jan 5, 2026)
JPMorgan: Neutral, PT raised to $48 (Dec 4, 2025)
Wall Street pros: Durable high growth at scale (ARR expansion), move upmarket/large enterprise traction, improving margins and product breadth.
Wall Street cons: Valuation/expectations and execution risk into guidance; some skepticism remains (e.g., JPM Neutral; RBC trimmed PT) despite staying constructive overall.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast IOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IOT is 50.54 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IOT is 50.54 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 24.250
Low
39
Averages
50.54
High
57
Current: 24.250
Low
39
Averages
50.54
High
57
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$49 -> $37
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$49 -> $37
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Samsara to $37 from $49 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. While Software's sentiment has remained more frozen than Elsa's castle, the firm expects the stock can work on the print given the combination of the weak sentiment, this level of upside, operational budget stickiness, and that FY27 numbers are already "de-risked" that could result in mid-20s growth realistically.
RBC Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$50 -> $46
2026-01-05
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
$50 -> $46
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Samsara to $46 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. 2026 is likely to be a year when AI tailwinds become more evident for companies well positioned for enterprise AI adoption, while less prepared peers may remain pressured by the "AI is the death of software" narrative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Enterprise spending appears to be stabilizing and improving in select areas, with GenAI driving innovation even as management teams remain conservative in early 2026 guidance, the firm says.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for IOT
