Not a good buy right now: the stock is extended after a sharp up move (overbought momentum) and is pushing into resistance, while fundamentals and Street sentiment have recently deteriorated.
For an impatient buyer, chasing here offers unfavorable risk/reward: upside looks capped near the next resistance zone, while a pullback to the pivot/support area is plausible.
Positioning is mixed (bullish open-interest skew but bearish put-heavy volume today), consistent with near-term hesitation rather than a clean breakout setup.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend.
Momentum is still positive: MACD histogram at 0.887 and expanding supports continued upside pressure.
Overbought/too hot short-term: RSI_6 at ~79 signals stretched conditions, increasing odds of a pause or pullback.
Key levels: price (110.71) is above R1 (109.858) and nearing R2 (113.075). A breakout above ~113 could extend the rally; failure near 113 raises pullback risk toward pivot 104.651 (then S1 99.445).
Pattern-based forward bias provided is slightly negative (next day/week/month expected drift modestly down), aligning with “overbought consolidation” risk.
Open-interest put/call at 0.48 implies more call positioning outstanding (structurally bullish/hedged bullish).
But today’s volume put/call at 1.8 indicates puts dominated today’s flow (short-term caution/hedging), though absolute volume is low (14 contracts), so read as a weak-but-negative tell.
Volatility: 30D IV ~31.37 vs HV ~29.45 (slightly elevated). IV percentile ~46.6 is mid-range (not screaming fear/greed).
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Restructuring plan targeting ~$150M annual expense reduction by 2028 could support margins/cash flow over time.
Technical trend remains upward (bullish MA stack + positive MACD), which can attract trend-following flows.
Net income: C$492M, -59.84% YoY (major profitability compression).
EPS: down ~57.81% YoY (material earnings decline).
Takeaway: growth trend is negative in the latest quarter; any near-term bullish case leans more on technicals and cost actions than on improving fundamentals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: predominantly downgrades and price-target cuts (bearish-to-cautious Wall Street drift).
Morgan Stanley (2026-01-23): Equal Weight, PT cut to C$98 (expects lighter cash flow tied to price realizations).
JPMorgan (2026-01-20): Underweight, PT cut to C$99 (prefers U.S. majors vs Canadian integrateds; valuation/relative appeal).
TD Securities (2025-12-16): Sell, slight PT cut to C$106.
Raymond James (2025-12-08): downgraded to Underperform, PT C$111.
Wall Street pros: strong financial position/operational footing, potential efficiency gains.
Wall Street cons: weaker cash flow/earnings vs prior year, limited near-term upside, relative valuation less compelling vs peers.
Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IMO is 82.5 USD with a low forecast of 67.67 USD and a high forecast of 100.78 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IMO is 82.5 USD with a low forecast of 67.67 USD and a high forecast of 100.78 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
5 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 108.320
Low
67.67
Averages
82.5
High
100.78
Current: 108.320
Low
67.67
Averages
82.5
High
100.78
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Equal Weight
downgrade
$101 -> $98
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Price Target
$101 -> $98
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott lowered the firm's price target on Imperial Oil to C$98 from C$101 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
JPMorgan
Underweight
downgrade
$110 -> $99
2026-01-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$110 -> $99
2026-01-20
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Imperial Oil to C$99 from C$110 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for IMO
