Buy now (dip-buy): price pulled back ~1.8% on the day to ~289, while broader trend structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) remains bullish.
Sentiment supports upside: options positioning is call-leaning (put/call < 1 on both OI and volume) and analyst price targets were broadly raised after strong Q4.
Near-term risk is manageable for an impatient buyer: momentum is weak (MACD histogram negative and worsening), but RSI is near the lower end of neutral, suggesting the selloff is closer to “reset/entry” than “blow-off top.”
Trend: Medium/long-term trend still constructive with bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Momentum: MACD histogram = -0.232 and negatively expanding → bearish short-term momentum; selling pressure still present.
RSI: RSI_6 = 37.0 (neutral but near the low end) → closer to “getting washed out” than “overbought.”
Levels: Pivot 299.14 overhead (near-term reclaim level). Support S1 283.50 then S2 273.84. Resistance R1 314.78.
Pattern/stat tilt: Similar-pattern stats show ~+4.34% 1-week bias but ~-2.75% 1-month bias → favors a quicker rebound trade over longer waiting.
Interpretation: This looks like a pullback within an uptrend; best entry is typically near support (283–290 zone).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call ratios below 1 (OI 0.91, volume 0.59) → bullish-to-neutral positioning, more call activity than puts.
Activity: Today’s options volume ~37.5k, about 133% of the 30-day average → elevated attention/participation.
Volatility: 30D IV 33.81 vs HV 38.61 (IV < HV) → options not screaming “panic premium”; IV percentile ~62 suggests moderately elevated but not extreme.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning constructive; not seeing strong downside hedging dominance.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
results** and upbeat commentary from multiple firms: software + mainframe strength, AI/hybrid cloud momentum.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases odds of a retest of 283.5 support.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $19.686B, +12.15% YoY → re-acceleration.
Net income: $5.6B, +92.18% YoY → strong profitability improvement.
Wall Street pros: AI + hybrid cloud + mainframe cycle + FCF strength; improving software growth trajectory.
Wall Street cons: valuation/risk-reward called “balanced” by neutrals; pockets of softness (Red Hat/Consulting) could limit near-term upside if they persist.
Wall Street analysts forecast IBM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IBM is 315.8 USD with a low forecast of 210 USD and a high forecast of 375 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IBM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IBM is 315.8 USD with a low forecast of 210 USD and a high forecast of 375 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 289.890
Low
210
Averages
315.8
High
375
Current: 289.890
Low
210
Averages
315.8
High
375
Argus
NULL -> Buy
maintain
$340 -> $360
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
Argus
Price Target
$340 -> $360
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Argus raised the firm's price target on IBM to $360 from $340 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's better than expected Q4 was led by generative artificial intelligence and hybrid cloud momentum and the z17 mainframe, the analyst tells investors in a research note. IBM's acquisition of HashiCorp also brings enhanced infrastructure and security automation to the company's hybrid cloud and AI solutions, the firm added.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$312 -> $317
2026-01-29
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$312 -> $317
2026-01-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on IBM to $317 from $312 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported better than expected Q4 results and fiscal 2026 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm attributes the strength to IBM' software and mainframe performance. However, it views the stock's risk/reward as balanced at current valuation levels.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for IBM
