Should I Buy HWM? HWM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

223.160

1 Day change

6.45%

52 Week Range

226.870

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (dip entry near support): After a -2.29% close to $208.63, HWM is trading close to the first support zone (~$206), creating a reasonable “buy-the-dip” entry for an impatient buyer.
Fundamentals and Street stance are strongly supportive: Recent quarter showed solid double-digit growth and expanding margins; analysts have been raising targets and reiterating Buy/Outperform-type ratings.
Near-term tape is still mildly bearish: Momentum indicators are negative (MACD < 0), so this is a buy based on support + fundamentals rather than a confirmed uptrend breakout.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no visible political-flow tailwind/headwind in the data).

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.663 (below 0) but negatively contracting, implying downside momentum is slowing rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6) 38.75 — not oversold, but weak/soft and consistent with a recent pullback.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/transition rather than a clean trending regime.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 214.21 (price is below pivot → technical bias still cautious)
- Support: S1 206.01, S2 200.95
- Resistance: R1 222.40, R2 227.46
Pattern-based probability (provided): Similar-pattern study implies a modest positive drift bias (next month +2.88% expectation), but not a strong short-term edge.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 1.02 = roughly balanced, slightly put-heavy (mildly cautious).
Flow (Daily Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 0.15 (calls dominating) suggests near-term bullish trading activity.
Volatility: IV30 44.44 vs historical vol 27.31; IV percentile 82.87 → options are priced rich, commonly seen into event windows (earnings is scheduled 2026-02-12 pre-market).
Activity/attention: Today’s volume vs 30D avg 19.35 indicates a notable spike in options activity, consistent with elevated attention/positioning into the upcoming catalyst.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market); sentiment/positioning suggests the market is actively focused on the print.
- Strong commercial aerospace backdrop (analyst commentary): Rising aircraft production + sustained aftermarket demand continues to support OE and AM segments.
- Company execution narrative: Analysts highlight capacity expansion and high-margin growth as key drivers.
- Bullish options flow: Call-heavy daily volume supports a constructive near-term sentiment read.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price below pivot and bearish MACD: Technical setup is still not a confirmed uptrend; a break below $206 can expose ~$201.
- Elevated implied volatility: With IV very high, the market is pricing a meaningful move around the upcoming earnings event.
- No supportive “smart money” surge in the provided trend data: Hedge funds and insiders shown as neutral (no strong confirmation from those cohorts in this dataset).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $2.089B, +13.84% YoY (solid top-line growth)
Net income: $384M, +16.01% YoY (profit growing faster than revenue)
EPS: $0.95, +17.28% YoY (strong per-share growth)
Gross margin: 31.21%, +11.42% YoY (clear margin expansion trend)

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Direction of changes: Recent actions are predominantly initiations/raises with Buy/Outperform/Overweight-type stances.
Notable target raises/initiations (recent):
- Truist (2026-01-09): Buy, PT $258 (raised from $225)
- Bernstein (2026-01-06): Outperform, PT $247 (raised from $241)
- Citi (2025-12-11): Buy, PT $246 (initiation)
- BNP Paribas Exane (2025-11-18): Outperform, PT $240 (initiation)
- BofA (2025-11-14): Buy, PT $250 (raised from $215)
- JPMorgan (2025-11-10): Overweight, PT $227 (raised from $190)
Wall Street pros: Durable aerospace demand, improving production rates, strong aftermarket, and confidence in profitable growth/capacity-driven upside.
Wall Street cons: Sector valuations described as elevated (stock selection “critical”), implying less margin for disappointment even with strong fundamentals.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HWM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HWM is 236.77 USD with a low forecast of 209 USD and a high forecast of 258 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 209.630

Low

209

Averages

236.77

High

258

Current: 209.630

Low

209

Averages

236.77

High

258

Truist

NULL -> Buy

maintain

$225 -> $258

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$225 -> $258

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Howmet Aerospace to $258 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.

Bernstein

Outperform

maintain

$241 -> $247

2026-01-06

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$241 -> $247

2026-01-06

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Howmet Aerospace to $247 from $241 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Commercial aerospace stocks had an extraordinary year in 2025, and the firm expects 2026 to be another one. For 2026, demand remains very high and should outstrip supply beyond 2030. Bernstein top pick in the U.S. for 2026 is Boeing.

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HWM Should I Buy

HWM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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