Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock just surged (~+6.3% today) into a near-term overbought condition (RSI_6 ~79.8), which raises pullback risk.
Technical trend is bullish (MACD expanding; SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but price is already above R1 (11.537) and nearing R2 (12.013), so upside from here looks less attractive versus downside to the pivot (10.768).
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but that reads more like “chasing calls” after a pop rather than a clean, early entry.
Fundamentals/news are a drag (Q4 loss, revenue down sharply YoY), which can cap follow-through even if the industry backdrop improves.
Intellectia signals are not supportive today (no AI Stock Picker; no SwingMax), so there’s no proprietary “must-buy-now” trigger.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.0515), signaling upside momentum.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at 79.77 indicates the move is stretched short-term (despite being labeled “neutral” in the feed, ~80 is typically overbought).
Levels to watch: Pivot 10.768 (key reclaim/hold level), Resistance R1 11.537 (already cleared), next Resistance R2 12.013 (near-term upside target/possible stall area), Support S1 9.998.
Near-term read: Bullish trend but poor entry timing after a sharp single-day jump; better risk/reward typically comes on consolidation/pullback.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put/call of 0.21 is strongly call-skewed (bullish sentiment).
Flow today: Put volume is 0 vs call volume 51 (put/call volume ratio 0.0), reinforcing a bullish (or speculative) tone.
Volatility: IV_30d 52.58 vs HV 42.4 suggests options are pricing elevated near-term moves; IV percentile 64.14 indicates IV is relatively high versus its own history.
Interpretation: Sentiment is bullish, but elevated IV means buying calls is more “expensive”; the skew looks consistent with post-rally chasing rather than quiet accumulation.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
citing improving/tightening supply signs in irregular-route OTR truckload.
with positive MACD and bullish moving-average stack.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings/news tone is negative: Q4 GAAP EPS -$0.25 and commentary highlighting “limited growth prospects” and need to improve financial performance.
Revenue trend is weak: Q4 revenue down ~26% YoY, which undermines conviction in a durable rally.
Short-term stretched: RSI near 80 after a +6% day increases odds of a quick mean-reversion pullback.
No supportive proprietary timing signal today (no AI Stock Picker; no SwingMax), reducing confidence in an immediate “buy-now” setup.
No notable hedge fund/insider trend signal in the last month/quarter (neutral), limiting “smart money” confirmation.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $179.355M, down -26.06% YoY (clear contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$19.441M and EPS -$0.25 (loss-making quarter; headline profitability remains pressured).
Takeaway: The company is in a downcycle/repair phase—momentum in the stock can happen on cycle expectations, but the reported growth trends are currently negative.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: Baird (2026-01-05) upgraded to Outperform, PT raised to $12 (from $8), citing a more constructive view of the irregular-route OTR segment and signs of tightening supply.
Counterpoint: Morgan Stanley (2025-12-08) kept Equal Weight and cut PT to $8 (from $10), though it upgraded the broader freight group outlook for 2026.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: cycle tailwinds may improve in 2026; HTLD’s niche positioning in irregular-route OTR highlighted as a differentiator.
Cons: mixed conviction overall (PTs range $8–$12); company-specific execution and profitability remain questioned after the latest quarter.
Influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders shown as neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast HTLD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTLD is 9.33 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HTLD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTLD is 9.33 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 11.470
Low
8
Averages
9.33
High
12
Current: 11.470
Low
8
Averages
9.33
High
12
UBS
Neutral
maintain
$11
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$11
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Heartland Express to $11 from $8.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm remains "cautious" in 2026 with freight weak, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Baird
Baird
Neutral -> Outperform
upgrade
$8 -> $12
2026-01-05
Reason
Baird
Baird
Price Target
$8 -> $12
2026-01-05
upgrade
Neutral -> Outperform
Reason
Baird upgraded Heartland Express to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $12, up from $8. The firm says the company "stands apart" as the only truckload carrier that operates exclusively in the irregular route over-the-road market segment. Baird cites its more constructive view of the segment for the upgrade. The firm sees growing evidence of tighter supply in the irregular route over-the-road market.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HTLD
