Not a good buy right now: price is extended and technically overbought (RSI-6 88) while sitting near/above first resistance (39.11), raising near-term pullback risk.
Fundamentals/news are positive (strong Q4, dividend hike, buybacks), but the stock is already pricing in much of that; the latest analyst PT ($39) is essentially met/exceeded at ~$39.24.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and short-term pattern stats pointing to slight downside over 1D/1W, the best call for an impatient buyer is HOLD (avoid chasing here) rather than buying at the current level.
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.72 suggests moderately bullish/less defensive open interest.
Activity: Very low volume (10 calls, 0 puts) but volume is elevated vs 30D average (333%); the signal is noisy due to tiny absolute volume.
Volatility: 30D IV 58.5 vs historical vol ~20.5 = options are priced rich; IV has been trending down vs 5D/10D averages (68), implying recent event vol may be fading.
Takeaway: Options sentiment leans slightly bullish on OI, but pricing is expensive and volume is too thin to be a strong conviction indicator.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Analyst action: Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $39 (from $
citing another strong quarter and elevated broker-dealer fees.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
are already at/above the freshly raised $39 target.
Capital return highlighted in news: meaningful dividends and repurchases, plus a dividend increase.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change (2026-02-03): Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $39 from $34 and maintained Market Perform.
Trend: Ratings stance remains neutral (no upgrade), but price target moved up materially after strong quarter.
Wall Street pro view (pros/cons):
Pros: strong quarter, shareholder returns, business resilience noted.
Cons: valuation/upside looks more capped at current price given PT proximity and neutral rating.
Wall Street analysts forecast HTH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTH is 35 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HTH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTH is 35 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 39.850
Low
34
Averages
35
High
36
Current: 39.850
Low
34
Averages
35
High
36
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$34 -> $39
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$34 -> $39
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Hilltop Holdings to $39 from $34 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Hilltop produced another strong quarter amid elevated broker-dealer fees, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Stephens
Equal Weight
maintain
$35 -> $36
2025-10-27
Reason
Stephens
Price Target
$35 -> $36
2025-10-27
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Stephens raised the firm's price target on Hilltop Holdings to $36 from $35 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While noting that the mortgage segment remains challenged by slower volumes, the firm was "pleased" to see accelerating trends in the broker/dealer and stable to improving trends in the commercial bank segment, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
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