Buy now (tactical entry): Price is sitting near key support (S1 17.281 / S2 16.801) with extreme oversold RSI (RSI_6 ~11.9), which often precedes a sharp mean-reversion bounce.
Insider behavior is strongly supportive: insiders are net buyers with buying amount up +1414% MoM, which is a meaningful confidence signal near a dip.
Fundamentals are trending up (latest quarter shows strong YoY growth), providing a cushion for a rebound attempt.
Not a “clean trend-following buy” (MACD still worsening), but for an impatient buyer, the current location near support + oversold conditions makes it a good buy right now.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.174 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is still present (bearish near-term).
Oversold condition: RSI_6 = 11.856 → extremely oversold, increasing probability of a short-term bounce/relief rally.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest the prior trend is losing clarity; price action is likely near an inflection zone.
Key levels:
Support: 17.281 (S1) then 16.801 (S2)
Pivot: 18.056 (regaining this improves near-term tone)
Resistance: 18.831 (R1) then 19.311 (R2)
Pattern-based forward look (provided): ~50% chance of -1.56% next day, but +2.56% next week and +8.86% next month → aligns with “dip then rebound” profile.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment:
Open interest put-call ratio 1.27 → more puts than calls outstanding (cautious/bearish tilt or hedging demand).
Put volume is dominant (put vol 8013 vs call vol 403; volume put-call ratio 19.88) → very bearish/defensive flow today.
Volatility:
30D IV 35.73 vs historical vol 21.75 → options are pricing elevated risk.
IV percentile 94.42 → IV is very high versus its recent history (market expects bigger moves; also indicates fear/hedging demand).
Takeaway: Options market is signaling risk-off/hedging, which often appears near local lows; it’s not “bullish sentiment,” but it can support a contrarian bounce thesis when paired with extreme oversold technicals.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-19 (After Hours)** can act as a catalyst if results/guide come in solid.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
MACD worsening (bearish momentum still building) → risk of further downside before any sustained rebound.
Heavy put activity / defensive options flow (very high put-call volume ratio) indicates traders are still positioned for downside or hedging aggressively.
Price is below/near S1 (17.281) in pre-market (~17.08), so support is being tested; a break could pull it toward S2 (16.801).
No supportive news flow in the past week to immediately flip sentiment.
No hedge fund accumulation signal (hedge funds described as neutral).
Net income: $118.79M, +74.62% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue)
EPS: $0.63, +50.00% YoY
Gross margin: 98.23%, slightly higher YoY
Read-through: Financial momentum is clearly positive, which supports buying dips rather than chasing breakdowns.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: On 2025-12-15, Lucid Capital (Ethan Kaye) initiated coverage with Buy and $19.75 price target.
Wall Street pro view (pros):
“Differentiated operator,” leading market position, strong track record.
Ability to grow NAV per share (per analyst note).
Wall Street con view (cons):
The stock has been caught in a broader BDC selloff, and sentiment can stay pressured even with solid fundamentals.
Influential/politician trading:
Congress trading (last 90 days): none available (no signal from that channel).
Wall Street analysts forecast HTGC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTGC is 20.04 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HTGC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HTGC is 20.04 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.330
Low
18
Averages
20.04
High
24
Current: 16.330
Low
18
Averages
20.04
High
24
Lucid Capital
Ethan Kaye
initiated
$19.75
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
Reason
Lucid Capital
Ethan Kaye
Price Target
$19.75
AI Analysis
2025-12-15
initiated
Reason
Lucid Capital analyst Ethan Kaye initiated coverage of Hercules Capital with a Buy rating and $19.75 price target. The firm says the recent selloff in business development company stocks has created a buying opportunity for shares of Hercules Capital. The company is a "differentiated operator with a leading market position, strong track record and demonstrated ability to grow NAV per share," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Compass Point
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
2025-11-04
Reason
Compass Point
Price Target
2025-11-04
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
Compass Point upgraded Hercules Capital to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $19.50, up from $19.25.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HTGC
