Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is technically stretched (RSI overbought) and sitting near resistance right ahead of earnings.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios < 1), but implied volatility is elevated, implying a higher chance of sharp post-earnings moves that don’t favor chasing.
Analysts have broadly lifted price targets on cocoa deflation/tariff relief, but several still flag valuation as rich near current levels—upside looks more limited vs. downside if earnings/guidance disappoint.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: moving averages are aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (momentum still up).
The stock is overbought: RSI_6 = 82.15, which often precedes short-term pullbacks/mean reversion.
Price is pressing into resistance: R1 ~ 203.01 has been exceeded and next resistance is R2 ~ 207.06; current ~ 205.81 is close to that cap.
Key levels: Pivot 196.45 is the main “line in the sand” for the recent up-move; a pullback toward the 196–200 area would be a cleaner entry than buying at 205+.
Pattern-based forward look is slightly negative-biased: ~50% odds to -0.68% next day, -1.69% next week, -1.46% next month (not supportive of chasing at current spot).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: AI Stock Picker = no signal today; SwingMax = no recent signal (no priority buy trigger).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment tilt: Put/Call Open Interest ratio 0.91 and Put/Call Volume ratio 0.74 both lean bullish (more calls than puts).
Volatility setup: 30D IV ~ 29.03 vs historical vol ~ 23, with IV percentile ~ 75.3 (options pricing in elevated event risk—consistent with earnings).
Activity vs norms: today’s option volume ~ 1,635 is below the 5D/10D averages (~3,623 / ~3,222.8), suggesting no extreme “crowded” options bet today.
Net takeaway: mildly bullish positioning, but elevated IV implies the market expects a potentially sharp move; that makes buying stock right before earnings less attractive for an impatient entry.
Fundamental tailwind highlighted by multiple analysts: falling cocoa prices and removal/resolution of cocoa-related tariffs increases earnings visibility and flexibility to reinvest.
“Flight to safety” bid for staples can support relative performance in weaker tape (S&P 500 was down -0.48% while HSY rose).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases odds of a pullback even on decent results.
Profitability weakened: Net income $276.3M, -38.09% YoY; EPS $1.36, -21.39% YoY.
Margins compressed: Gross margin 32.61, down materially YoY (consistent with prior cocoa/input cost pressure).
Growth read: sales growth is intact, but earnings power has been pressured—bull case depends on margin recovery from cocoa deflation flowing through upcoming quarters.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: clear upward bias in price targets and several upgrades since early January, largely driven by easing cocoa costs/tariff resolution and improved EPS visibility.
Notable moves: Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight (PT $213); Morgan Stanley kept Overweight (PT $214); Barclays raised PT to $210 but stayed Equal Weight; DA Davidson raised PT to $207 but stayed Neutral; Deutsche Bank raised PT to $188 and stayed Hold; Wells Fargo upgraded to Equal Weight but explicitly warned valuation is rich.
Wall Street “pros” view: improving cost outlook + better earnings visibility into FY26/FY27.
Wall Street “cons” view: valuation near peak multiples and lingering sector/fundamental headwinds—supports holding/avoiding chase rather than buying aggressively at 205+.
Wall Street analysts forecast HSY stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HSY is 196.27 USD with a low forecast of 181 USD and a high forecast of 222 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HSY stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HSY is 196.27 USD with a low forecast of 181 USD and a high forecast of 222 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
14 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 224.380
Low
181
Averages
196.27
High
222
Current: 224.380
Low
181
Averages
196.27
High
222
Stifel
Hold
maintain
$195 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$195 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Hold
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Hershey to $230 from $195 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company reported a strong fourth quarter and provided initial 2026 guidance well above the firm's expectations.
Evercore ISI
David Palmer
In Line
maintain
$215 -> $250
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Evercore ISI
David Palmer
Price Target
$215 -> $250
2026-02-06
New
maintain
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI analyst David Palmer raised the firm's price target on Hershey to $250 from $215 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares after raising the firm's EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 by around 20%, driven by lower cocoa costs and effective marketing strategies. Hershey's stock has gained 21% since January, prompting its removal from the firm's "Tactical Outperform" list, the analyst noted.
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