Should I Buy HRTX? HRTX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Heron Therapeutics Inc (HRTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

1.260

1 Day change

4.13%

52 Week Range

2.680

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is below key trend averages with weakening momentum, and there’s no proprietary buy signal to justify immediate entry.
Downtrend remains intact (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and MACD is deteriorating; any bounce is more likely a short-lived mean reversion than a trend change.
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy with very high IV, which can support short-term spikes, but it also signals speculative risk rather than stable accumulation.
No near-term news catalysts or notable institutional/insider/political buying pressure shown to help force a reversal.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0161 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 35.37 (near oversold but still “neutral” by the provided labeling) → could bounce, but not a confirmed reversal.
Key levels: Pivot 1.387 (price below it = bearish). Near-term support S1 1.317 (price ~1.33 is sitting just above it); next support S2 1.273. Resistance levels: 1.458 (R1) then 1.502 (R2).
Pattern-based odds (provided): modest positive drift expected (next day +0.66%, next week +3.29%, next month +2.65%), but this conflicts with the current bearish tape; treat as a minor tailwind, not a trigger.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: Put/Call Open Interest ratio 0.02 (puts extremely low vs calls) → aggressively bullish/speculative positioning.
Volume: Put volume 0 and call volume 82; Put/Call volume ratio 0.0 → today’s activity is one-sided to calls.
Volatility: 30D IV 166.17 vs historical vol 51.9 → options are pricing very large moves; IV percentile 80.48 (elevated).
Flow intensity: Today’s volume vs 30D average 32.41 (spike), but absolute volume is still small; this looks like retail/speculative burst more than broad institutional conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Near-oversold setup: RSI ~35 and price sitting near S1 (1.317) can produce a technical bounce.
- Options are call-dominant: extreme call skew can sometimes fuel short squeezes / quick spikes.
- Financial trajectory improving YoY (latest quarter): losses narrowing and revenue growing (see financials).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Clear bearish trend and momentum: moving averages stacked bearishly and MACD worsening.
- No news this week: lack of fresh catalysts reduces odds of a sustained reversal.
- Very high implied volatility: even if direction is right, pricing implies big swings; the market is not expecting stability.
- No notable hedge fund/insider trend: both reported as neutral, offering little confirmation of accumulation.
- Macro tape slightly risk-off: S&P 500 down -0.48% on the session (not supportive for weak small-cap biotech names).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $38.213M, +16.47% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Net income: - $17.495M, improved +260.87% YoY (loss narrowing materially).
EPS: -0.10, improved +233.33% YoY.
Gross margin: 68.82%, down -3.30% YoY (some margin compression despite better revenue and earnings trend).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating changes or price target updates were provided in the dataset, so recent Wall Street trend cannot be confirmed here.
Pros (typical bull case given the financials shown): improving YoY revenue and sharply narrowing losses suggest operational progress.
Cons (typical bear case given the tape): persistent downtrend, weak technical momentum, and lack of near-term catalysts keep conviction low right now.
Influential/political trades: No recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders reported as neutral (no significant recent trend).

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HRTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRTX is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 1.210

Low

Averages

4.5

High

Current: 1.210

Low

Averages

4.5

High

Jefferies

Buy

downgrade

$6 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-04

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$6 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-04

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Heron Therapeutics to $5 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Zynrelef delivered Q3 net revenue of $9.3M, ahead of the consensus view of $9M, driven by rising demand, vial access needle transition, improved access, and enhanced support programs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that its price target, which is based on a DCF valuation model, is also driven by oncology franchise sales, with peak sales of $106M in 2025.

H.C. Wainwright

Brandon Folkes

Buy

initiated

2025-06-09

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Brandon Folkes

Price Target

2025-06-09

initiated

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright analyst Brandon Folkes initiated coverage of Heron Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $6 price target. Heron is a commercial-stage biotechnology company with multiple products, across the acute care and oncology supportive care setting, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Heron is entering a "meaningful inflection phase" on Zynrelef. Despite successful branded products in the post-surgical pain market, overall branded penetration remains low, contends H.C. Wainwright.

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HRTX Should I Buy

HRTX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Heron Therapeutics Inc (HRTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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