Should I Buy HRMY? HRMY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc (HRMY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

37.270

1 Day change

2.36%

52 Week Range

40.870

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: no proprietary buy signals today and near-term pattern stats skew slightly negative (next week/month).
Trend is mildly bullish (stacked moving averages + positive MACD), but price is sitting near the pivot (~37.23) rather than breaking out; risk/reward is not compelling for an immediate chase.
Options positioning is bullish-leaning (low put/call OI), but insider selling (CFO exiting direct ownership) is a notable overhang into the next earnings (2026-02-24).
Best stance now: HOLD/avoid initiating a new position at this level; only turns attractive on a clean break above ~38.07 (R1) with follow-through or a dip closer to ~36.39 (S1) with stabilization.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, implying an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.0482) and expanding, supporting continued upside momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) ~53.7 (neutral) — not overbought, but also not a screaming oversold entry.
Key levels: Pivot 37.23 (current price ~37.32 is just above). Resistance: 38.07 (R1), then 38.59 (R2). Support: 36.39 (S1), then 35.87 (S2).
Quant/Pattern bias: Similar-pattern projection suggests modest downside bias near term (-3.95% next week, -4.97% next month), which weakens the “buy now” case.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open Interest Put/Call ratio 0.37 is call-heavy (generally bullish sentiment/positioning).
Volume: Put volume is 0 and call volume is 7 today; total options volume is very light, so the signal is not very strong.
Volatility: 30D IV ~49.96 vs historical vol ~29.36 (options pricing in more movement than realized).
IV rank/percentile: IV Rank ~10.22 and IV Percentile ~22.71 — volatility is relatively low vs its own history, suggesting options are not “crowded expensive,” but also not indicating fear.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge fund flow: Reported hedge funds are buying (very large QoQ increase in buying activity), supportive for sentiment.
- Fundamentals backdrop: Prior quarter showed strong top-line growth (Wakix strength referenced by analysts).
- Event catalyst: Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if results/guide surprise positively.
- Street stance: Recent targets still sit above the current price (e.g., Truist $45; Mizuho $39), implying upside if execution continues.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity/news: CFO Sandip Kapadia sold shares (including a reported full exit from direct equity ownership), which can weigh on near-term sentiment.
- Near-term statistical drift: Similar-candlestick analysis points to slightly negative expected returns over the next week/month.
- Margin trend: Gross margin dipped YoY, which can become a concern if it continues.
- Earnings proximity: With earnings in ~2-3 weeks, buying now exposes you to headline risk without a clear technical breakout or proprietary buy trigger.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $239.455M, +28.71% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: $50.865M, +10.35% YoY (growing, but slower than revenue).
EPS: $0.87, +10.13% YoY (steady profitability growth).
Gross margin: 75.09%, -2.49% YoY (mild margin compression to monitor).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-08 (Truist): Kept Buy; price target trimmed to $45 from $48 (minor de-risking, but still constructive).
2025-11-06 (Mizuho): Kept Outperform; raised PT to $39 from $36 after Q3, citing strong Wakix performance.
Wall Street pros: Continued confidence in fundamentals/commercial performance; targets imply upside from ~$37.
Wall Street cons: Some caution showing via PT trim; with insider selling headlines, sentiment could be choppier into earnings.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HRMY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRMY is 43.83 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 36.410

Low

Averages

43.83

High

Current: 36.410

Low

Averages

43.83

High

Truist

Buy

downgrade

$48 -> $45

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$48 -> $45

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Harmony Biosciences to $45 from $48 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model, but tells investors in a research note that the fundamental views remain intact from 2025.

Mizuho

Graig Suvannavejh

Outperform

maintain

$36 -> $39

2025-11-06

Reason

Mizuho

Graig Suvannavejh

Price Target

$36 -> $39

2025-11-06

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Graig Suvannavejh raised the firm's price target on Harmony Biosciences to $39 from $36 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following the Q3 report. The firm cites the strong Wakix performance for the target increase.

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HRMY Should I Buy

HRMY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc (HRMY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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