Should I Buy HRL? HRL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

24.930

1 Day change

-0.64%

52 Week Range

31.860

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock just popped (+2.70% regular session) and is sitting right at/just above near-term resistance (R1 ~25.27; next R2 ~25.60), which limits immediate upside.
Momentum is improving (positive, expanding MACD), but RSI (~70.5) is stretched enough that near-term pullback/chop risk is elevated.
Options positioning is very bullish (very low put/call ratios), but implied volatility is high (IV percentile ~84.9), suggesting the market is pricing a bigger move—often around upcoming events (earnings 2/26), which makes “buy now” less attractive at this exact level.
Fundamentals from the latest quarter are weak (loss and margin compression), so the bull case is more about an inflection/turnaround than current performance.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Influential/political flows: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are neutral per provided trends.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.045) and expanding → short-term bullish momentum improving.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~70.5 → near overbought; upside continuation is possible, but entry risk is higher after a quick move up.
Moving averages: converging MAs → transition/indecision phase; breakout needs confirmation.
Levels: Pivot 24.731 (key near-term reference). Support S1 24.193 then S2 23.86. Resistance R1 25.27 (being tested) then R2 25.603.
Pattern-based odds (provided): ~60% chance of -0.66% next day; +1.29% next week; +8.21% next month → near-term chop with better medium-term drift.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are extremely low (OI PCR 0.39; Volume PCR 0.04) → heavy call skew / bullish positioning.
Activity: Today’s option volume 9,271 vs 30D avg (384% of avg) → unusually active day.
Volatility: 30D IV ~34.05 vs historical vol ~25.28; IV percentile ~84.86 → options are expensive and market is pricing a sizable move.
Interpretation: Bullish sentiment is present, but elevated IV + upcoming catalysts increases the odds of sharp swings; not an ideal “chase” entry right at resistance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

can refresh the narrative and highlight portfolio/profitability initiatives.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Latest quarter showed material profitability deterioration (net loss, EPS -0.10, gross margin down) → fundamental headwind.
- Execution risk called out by JPMorgan; portfolio reshaping benefits need to show up in margins.
- Elevated implied volatility means the market expects a bigger move; if catalysts disappoint, downside can be swift.
- With price already near resistance after a strong day, near-term risk/reward is not attractive for an immediate buy.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $3.186B (+1.52% YoY) → modest top-line growth.
Net income: -$56.1M (down -125.49% YoY) → swung into a loss.
EPS: -0.10 (down -125% YoY) → significant earnings deterioration.
Gross margin: 14.13% (down -14.93% YoY) → margin compression is the key issue; the bull thesis depends on margin recovery and execution in FY26.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets were cut in November/early December on near-term issues, then generally raised modestly after Q4 results and FY26 outlook (a stabilization/inflection narrative).
Barclays (Dec 9): Overweight; PT cut to $30 from $31 (still meaningfully above current price).
JPMorgan (Dec 4): Overweight; PT raised to $28 from $27; notes execution risk but sees possible upward inflection.
BofA (Dec 4): Neutral; PT raised to $26 from $25; constructive on portfolio reshaping, watching follow-through.
Piper Sandler (Dec 5): Neutral; PT raised to $26 from $25; sees guidance as balanced.
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros = improving outlook/portfolio actions and potential earnings inflection; Cons = execution risk and recent margin/earnings damage still fresh.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HRL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRL is 27.4 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 25.090

Low

Averages

27.4

High

Current: 25.090

Low

Averages

27.4

High

Barclays

Overweight

NULL

downgrade

$31 -> $30

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$31 -> $30

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

downgrade

Overweight

NULL

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Hormel Foods to $30 from $31 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a 2026 outlook for the Americas agribusiness group. The firm expects agriculture markets to see mixed results in 2026. It favors seed over crude protein and is neutral to positive on fertilizer. Within grain traders, Barclays says biofuel policy will determine the direction, while in protein, 2026 is likely a continuation of 2025.

Piper Sandler

Michael Lavery

Neutral

maintain

$25 -> $26

2025-12-05

Reason

Piper Sandler

Michael Lavery

Price Target

$25 -> $26

2025-12-05

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery raised the firm's price target on Hormel Foods to $26 from $25 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company had a pre-announcement indicating much of the Q4 cost and margin headwinds, removing surprises on its quarterly results. Its 2026 guidance was still news, and it appears to have hit a good balance between achievability and targeting growth in-line with its long-term algorithm, Piper adds.

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HRL Should I Buy

HRL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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