Should I Buy HP? HP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Helmerich and Payne Inc (HP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

35.970

1 Day change

4.17%

52 Week Range

36.730

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: technicals are overextended (RSI ~89.7) and the stock is reacting to weak/negative EPS, which raises near-term downside risk despite a longer-term uptrend.
Pre-market is -4.48% to 34.78, which helps cool momentum, but the chart still looks like a post-run pullback rather than a fresh low-risk entry.
Fund flows are a headwind: hedge funds are reportedly net selling aggressively (selling amount up 5577.59% QoQ).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.255 and expanding = upside momentum still present, but may be late-cycle.
Overbought: RSI_6 = 89.74 signals the move is stretched; probability of chop/pullback is elevated.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 34.111 (pre-market 34.78 is just above pivot; losing pivot increases pullback odds)
- Resistance: R1 35.987, R2 37.146 (recent price area; overhead supply likely after earnings)
- Support: S1 32.236, S2 31.077 (next downside zones if pivot fails)
Pattern/stat model: similar candlestick pattern implies ~60% chance of modest gains, but the expected near-term move is small (about +1.08% next day), which is less compelling given current event risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.55, volume 0.66) indicate a call-leaning tone (more bullish than bearish).
Volatility: IV30 ~50.87 vs HV ~30.42 suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty (consistent with earnings/news).
Activity: Today’s option volume (373) is relatively light versus 5D/10D averages (5D 2381, 10D 1561.8), so the bullish skew is not backed by unusually strong volume today.
IV rank/percentile: IV percentile 36.65 and IV rank 17.73 = not extreme vs its own history, but still high versus realized volatility.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Revenue momentum: latest quarter snapshot shows revenue +45.83% YoY to ~$1.012B (strong top-line growth).
- Street narrative improving: multiple firms raised price targets and several are Overweight/Positive, citing international inflection and potential cycle stabilization.
- International/Saudi angle: upgrades reference Saudi activity returning and HP being a beneficiary (supports medium-term demand expectations).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings disappointment / profitability issues: news indicates Q1 non-GAAP EPS -$0.15 (miss); profitability remains the key concern.
- Margin compression: gross margin in the latest financial snapshot fell to 10.76% (down ~60% YoY), signaling weaker pricing/cost pressure.
- Net loss: net income - $57.7M and EPS -0.58 in 2025/Q4 show growth is not translating to earnings yet.
- Institutional selling: hedge funds are selling heavily quarter-over-quarter.
- Sector/macro risk: bears (e.g., Morgan Stanley Underweight) argue North American onshore spending could stay constrained; that can cap upside after a rally.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q4):
- Revenue: $1.012B, +45.83% YoY (strong growth)
- Net income: -$57.66M, -177.45% YoY (loss widened)
- EPS: -0.58, -177.33% YoY
- Gross margin: 10.76%, down sharply (~-60.06% YoY)
Takeaway: HP is showing big top-line expansion, but the trend in margins/earnings is deteriorating, which typically limits “buy now” conviction right after a strong run.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: broad wave of price-target increases (roughly mid-$30s) and several upgrades to Overweight/Positive (JPMorgan, Piper, Barclays), but Morgan Stanley remains Underweight (PT $28).
Wall Street pros:
- Belief the oilfield services cycle is bottoming/plateauing and could improve into 2H
- HP seen as a beneficiary of international/Saudi activity
- Some confidence in a deleveraging path/capex discipline
Wall Street cons:
- Concern that North American activity remains constrained and it may be too early to step in
- Recent rally may have already priced in a lot of the optimism; near-term upside looks less asymmetric near the mid-$30s targets
Politicians / influential trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no significant recent trend.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HP stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HP is 31.45 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 34.530

Low

Averages

31.45

High

Current: 34.530

Low

Averages

31.45

High

Susquehanna

Positive

maintain

$36 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$36 -> $40

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Positive

Reason

Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Helmerich & Payne to $40 from $36 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm updated it model following Q1 results where EBITDA and free cash flow were above expectations. Management stated that it remains optimistic for its full-year outlook due to ongoing customer discussions but sees greater upside potential in 2027 and beyond.

Evercore ISI

In Line

maintain

$27 -> $37

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$27 -> $37

2026-02-06

New

maintain

In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Helmerich & Payne to $37 from $27 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. While investors remain focused on international upside as Saudi reactivations are underway, the firm reminds that the North American business, the largest part of the portfolio, is still softening to start the year.

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HP Should I Buy

HP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Helmerich and Payne Inc (HP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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