Not a good buy right now: price is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 ~29.95) with short-term RSI elevated, making the risk/reward unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Bullish intermediate trend is intact (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and expanding positive MACD), so this is more a “don’t chase” setup than a bearish one.
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call OI ratio), but today’s options activity is extremely thin, so it’s not a strong confirmation signal.
No fresh news catalysts this week; the next meaningful driver is likely future bank macro/rate expectations and upcoming earnings cadence.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0989 and expanding = bullish momentum still building.
Overbought/extension risk: RSI_6 at ~75.4 suggests the stock is stretched short-term (more prone to pullbacks).
Key levels: Pivot 29.129 (first “better entry” area), Support S1 28.306; Resistance R1 29.952 then R2 30.461.
Near-term pattern odds (similar candlestick analogs): modestly negative bias (-0.57% next day, -1.75% next week), which argues against buying into resistance pre-market.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.17 is very call-heavy (bullish sentiment).
Activity quality: Today’s total options volume is only 1 contract (calls 1, puts 0) — sentiment signal is weak due to illiquidity.
Volatility: 30D IV ~37.38 vs historical vol ~20.94 implies options are priced rich relative to realized movement.
Flow vs baseline: Today volume vs 30D avg at 1.61 looks elevated, but on a tiny absolute volume base.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Q4 2025 fundamentals were solid: revenue +6.94% YoY, net income +17.56% YoY, EPS +17.65% YoY.
Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and raised price target to $35 (from $34), highlighting NIM expansion (+5 bps) and strong loan growth (10.5%).
Overall read: improving profitability trends, consistent with a constructive medium-term setup, but not enough to justify chasing a stretched short-term entry.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent action (2026-01-16): Piper Sandler raised PT to $35 from $34 and maintained Overweight.
Rationale cited: Q4 2025 results with NIM expansion and “surprisingly strong” loan growth.
Wall Street pros: improving margin/loan growth narrative supports upside continuation if rates/credit remain supportive.
Wall Street cons: near-term price extension and lack of fresh catalysts can limit immediate upside; upside may be better captured on pullbacks rather than at resistance.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are both neutral (no notable recent buying/selling trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast HOMB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOMB is 33 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HOMB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOMB is 33 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 30.080
Low
32
Averages
33
High
35
Current: 30.080
Low
32
Averages
33
High
35
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$34 -> $35
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$34 -> $35
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Home BancShares to $35 from $34 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company delivered its Q4 2025 results, which included 5 bps of net interest margin expansion and "surprisingly strong" 10.5% loan growth.
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$35 -> $34
2025-10-17
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$35 -> $34
2025-10-17
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Home BancShares to $34 from $35 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Home BancShares delivered its Q3 results, which include margin expansion and positively trending profitability. Net interest income and net interest margin improved sequentially, while loan/deposit growth was a bit underwhelming, but drove a positive mix shift overall.
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