Should I Buy HOLX? HOLX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hologic Inc (HOLX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

74.810

1 Day change

0.15%

52 Week Range

75.360

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: HOLX is trading $74.6 with a clear, well-defined near-term floor around $74.4–$74.6 support, while the announced takeout value is up to $79/share, implying roughly **5–6% upside** if the deal path stays intact.
Setup favors a bounce: Extremely oversold RSI(6)=18.7 plus price sitting right on support increases the odds of a snapback move without needing a “perfect” entry.
Sentiment is cautious but consistent with merger-arb/hedging: Very high put/call ratios look scary, but with very low IV percentile, this reads more like positioning/hedging around a largely range-bound deal spread than a high-conviction crash bet.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0765 and negatively expanding → downside momentum still present, but often late-stage when RSI is this washed out.
Oversold: RSI(6)=18.744 → deeply oversold, statistically supportive of a short-term rebound.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → compression/range behavior, consistent with deal-related price pinning.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 74.937 (price below pivot = slightly bearish bias)
- Support: S1 74.609, S2 74.406 (price is sitting right on this support band)
- Resistance: R1 75.266, R2 75.469 (first upside hurdles on any bounce)
Pattern-based projection provided: ~+2.28% next week, +1.67% next month (near-term bias mildly positive after weakness).

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-heavy structure is extreme (OI P/C=4.67, Volume P/C=38.0) → strongly defensive/bearish-leaning flow.
Volatility: IV 30d ~6.9%, IV percentile ~7.17, IV rank ~3.11 → options are priced for low movement (fits a deal/range trade narrative).
Activity: Today’s volume 39 with ~7.18x vs 30-day avg, but still small absolute volume; notable skew is mainly in puts.
Interpretation: The combo of extreme put skew + very low IV more often signals hedging/merger-arb protection than an expectation of a large immediate drop.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Deal anchor: Acquisition by Blackstone/TPG valued up to $79/share creates a visible upside reference and tends to support price on dips.
- Regulatory/product catalyst: FDA approval for Aptima® HPV Assay as the only mRNA-based HPV test could improve competitive positioning and screening adoption.
- Flow: Hedge funds show aggressive buying (+4616% QoQ), consistent with institutional interest (often merger-arb participation).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings disappointment: Recent quarter print showed non-GAAP EPS miss and demand challenges highlighted in commentary/news flow.
- Profitability pressure: Latest snapshot shows Net Income -10.9% YoY and EPS -9.2% YoY despite modest revenue growth.
- Technical downside momentum: MACD continues to weaken; if 74.40 breaks, next support would likely be lower and the trade becomes less “clean.”
- Street tone cooling: Multiple downgrades to Neutral/In Line cap near-term upside enthusiasm.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2026/Q1):
- Revenue: $1.0478B, +2.54% YoY (modest growth)
- Net Income: $179.1M, -10.90% YoY (decline)
- EPS: $0.79, -9.20% YoY (decline)
- Gross Margin: 57.21%, +1.53% YoY (margin improved, but not enough to offset earnings decline)
Takeaway: Top-line is inching up and margins improved, but earnings are contracting—fundamentals alone are not the near-term bull case; the deal + oversold setup are.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings have moved more cautious with downgrades:
- Evercore ISI (2026-01-05): Downgrade to In Line, PT $78 (from $79)
- BNP Paribas Exane (2025-11-21): Downgrade to Neutral, PT $79
- Morgan Stanley (2025-11-10): Equal Weight, PT raised to $76 post-deal; called deal price “fair” and expects closure in H1 2026.
Wall Street pros: Deal provides valuation support; closure seen as achievable; targets cluster $76–$79.
Wall Street cons: Neutral ratings suggest limited upside beyond deal spread; fundamentals (EPS/NI declines) reduce enthusiasm if deal sentiment weakens.
Influential/political trades: No recent congress trading data available; insiders flagged as neutral recently.

12 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HOLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOLX is 77.56 USD with a low forecast of 76 USD and a high forecast of 79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

12 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 74.700

Low

Averages

77.56

High

Current: 74.700

Low

Averages

77.56

High

Evercore ISI

Outperform -> In Line

downgrade

$79 -> $78

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$79 -> $78

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Outperform -> In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI downgraded Hologic to In Line from Outperform with a price target of $78, down from $79.

BNP Paribas Exane

Outperform -> Neutral

downgrade

$79

2025-11-21

Reason

BNP Paribas Exane

Price Target

$79

2025-11-21

downgrade

Outperform -> Neutral

Reason

BNP Paribas Exane downgraded Hologic to Neutral from Outperform with a $79 price target.

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HOLX Should I Buy

HOLX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hologic Inc (HOLX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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